Next Sunday, voters in the first constituency of Côtes-d’Armor will have the choice between three candidates: Mickaël Cosson, the outgoing MoDem MP, who came in first ahead of Marion Gorgiard, the LFI candidate for the New Popular Front and the RN representative, Françoise Billaud. A three-way race, the result of the very good score of a National Rally which obtained 25.75% of the votes.
Because this is indeed the first lesson to be learned from this first round: the constituency which, until now, has always elected a moderate left or right deputy, has just placed the RN on the third step.
Full of votes in the RN?
Certainly, in the current context, it was to be expected that Françoise Billaud, who does not live in the constituency, would achieve a high score. But to consider it at such a level is more surprising. A result that she owes in large part to the voters of the small communes. Which, in itself, is not very surprising.
It is mainly in rural areas that she capitalizes the most votes. Buoyed by this result, far-right voters will once again be very mobilized for the second round. The question now is whether their representative has won the most votes on the evening of this first round.
Towards a LR report?
A question which must also bother the other two candidates. Mickaël Cosson, the first. The outgoing deputy, representing the presidential majority, took the lead on the evening of the first round with 32.96% of the votes. He is ahead of Marion Gorgiard, who is right behind him with 30.38%. In 2022, during the previous legislative elections, the results were reversed.
Certainly, the MoDem deputy was able to benefit from the votes of a left-wing electorate put off by the idea of slipping a ballot for LFI into the ballot box. Voters thus denouncing the alliance made under the banner of the New Popular Front.
But what reserve of votes does he have? In the second round, candidate Cosson may be able to take advantage of the transfer of votes from LR voters, orphaned by their candidate, Bernard Croguennec, who finished 4th, very far behind with only 5.54%.
Who are the undecided?
Will it be enough to beat Marion Gorgiard? The NFP representative came very far in the lead in Saint-Brieuc. But behind one or the other of his two competitors in the rest of the constituency.
What if the challenge of this last week of the campaign, for the two leading candidates, lay in hunting down the undecided? These moderate voters, not necessarily fans of LFI without being completely convinced by the presidential majority, that Mickaël Cosson like Marion Gorgiard will try to flirt with. The outgoing MP by presenting himself as a refuge candidate for all those who want neither the RN nor the LFI. The NFP candidate by polishing her image and recalling that her opponent is accountable for the results of the outgoing majority. It remains to be seen who will win.
