the RN well ahead of the first round at 34%, followed by the New Popular Front at 28.1%, the presidential bloc in sharp decline at 20.3%
According to the Ipsos Talan estimate for France Télévisions and Radio France, the National Rally and its allies came well ahead of this first round of the legislative elections, with 34% of the votes cast, a very clear progression compared to its 2022 score. (18.68%), and that obtained in the European elections on June 9 (31.37%).
The New Popular Front came in second in this election with 28.1% of the vote. In 2022, the NUPES (New Ecological and Social Popular Union) had collected 25.66% of the vote.
The presidential majority is well behind, with 20.3% of the vote, a level below its 2022 score (25.75%). Republicans and various right-wing candidates obtained 10.2% of the vote (compared to 11.29% in 2022).
The various center/UDI candidates collect 1.4% of the votes, the various left candidates 1.8%, the sovereignist right 0.3%, the Reconquest candidates 0.6%, and the far left candidates 1.2%.
The RN and its allies could obtain between 230 and 280 seats
According to an Ipsos Talan projection, the RN and its allies could obtain between 230 and 280 seats (including 26 to 36 for LR candidates supported by the RN), i.e. below the absolute majority at 289 seats. The New Popular Front would obtain 125 to 165 seats, far ahead of the presidential camp (Together), expected between 70 and 100 seats. Republicans and diverse right-wing candidates would have between 41 and 61 seats.
Within the New Popular Front, LFI (La France insoumise) could obtain 58 to 72 seats, the PS 33 to 43 seats, the ecologists 28 to 38 seats, and the PCF (French Communist Party) 6 to 12 seats.
Among the ranks of the Ensemble candidates, Renaissance would have between 53 and 71 seats, the Modem between 13 and 19 seats, and Horizons between 4 and 10 seats.
The various left candidates (excluding the New Popular Front) would have between 11 and 19 seats, and the “other” candidates between 22 and 30 seats.
