Furthermore, exports from the phosphates and derivatives sector, once the Kingdom’s leading exporter, increased by 5.3% to 32 billion dirhams. Sales of natural and chemical fertilizers are at the origin of this progression since they show an increase of 7.3% over one year to 23.6 billion dirhams. The aeronautics industry continues, for its part, its breakthrough in exports with shipments up 17.6% at the end of May, reaching 10.6 billion dirhams. The bulk of exports in this sector come from the assembly activity which shows an improvement of 27.8% in its sales to 6.9 billion dirhams. Regarding exports of theagriculture and of theagro industrythey nosedived at the end of May, falling by 0.7% to 41.7 billion dirhams. In this table, shipments of the food industry fell by 2.2% and those of agriculture, fishing and forestry by -0.1%. This wind of underperformance in exports also affects theelectronic and theelectricity (-6.7%), textiles and leather (-4%) and other industries which include metallurgy and metalworking (-12.2%) and the pharmaceutical industry (-8.9%) with the exception of plastics and rubber whose exports gained 9.4% to 673 million dirhams at the end of May.
Energy bill: a 5.2% drop due to price effects
As for the Kingdom’s imports, they will have progressed less quickly than exports, showing an increase of 2.3% at the end of last May to reach 308.8 billion dirhams. Finished equipment products naturally make up the bulk of imports with a rise of 6.8% to 71.7 billion dirhams followed by finished consumer products (+5.2% to 69.01 billion DH) and semi-finished products (+6.5% to 66.8 billion DH). On the other hand, statistics from the Foreign Exchange Office show an easing of the energy bill. Indeed, imports of energy products fell by 5.2% to 48.9 billion dirhams. Important clarification: this development is the result of the drop in supplies of petroleum gas and other hydrocarbons of 26.2% due to the effect of a price drop of -25.4% combined with a slight drop in imported quantities of -1%.
World trade: optimistic short-term outlook
According to recent data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), published in early July, global GDP growth forecasts remain around 3% for 2024, with the short-term trade outlook cautiously optimistic. If positive trends persist, global trade could reach nearly $32 trillion this year. However, UNCTAD qualifies, it is unlikely to surpass the record level reached in 2022. At the end of the first quarter, the UN body indicates that global trade trends have turned positive, with the value of trade in goods increasing by around 1% quarter-on-quarter and that of services by around 1.5%. This surge, fueled by positive trade momentum in the United States and developing countries, particularly in large developing Asian economies, is expected to see trade in goods rise by about $250 billion and trade in services by $100 billion in the first half of 2024. In the first quarter, global trade growth was mainly driven by increased exports from China (9%), India (7%) and the United States (3%).
Conversely, Europe’s exports did not grow and those of Africa fell by 5%. Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by around 2%, both for imports and exports, in the first quarter. In comparison, developed countries saw their imports stagnate and their exports increase modestly by 1%. On an annual basis, however, South-South trade fell by 5% if we compare the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024. In its World Trade Dashboard, UNCTAD reports a surge in products related to green energy and artificial intelligence, which are showing stronger increases. For example, the trade value of high-performance servers increased by 25% year-on-year, while other computers and storage units increased by 8%. The trade value of electric vehicles also increased significantly, by 25%.
