The risk of a hurricane hitting the Antilles is increasing day by day, according to data from the American Hurricane Center. An exceptional event at this time of year, and with the summer holidays approaching.
The Antilles are holding their breath. According to Le Parisien, Thursday, June 27, the NHC (American Hurricane Center) estimates that a hurricane (complete or forming) could hit the islands next week. Several DROM-COM could be affected, such as Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Martin or Saint-Barthélemy, and this, while the summer holidays are approaching.
How to explain this phenomenon ? According to the NHC, a tropical wave has formed off the coast of Africa and southwest of Cape Verde. However, this area is favorable for the emergence of a hurricane in the North Atlantic area. The risk of a hurricane forming continued to increase during the week, going from 40% on Tuesday June 25 to 70% on Thursday June 27. In an NHC map, the probable path of the hurricane passes through the middle of the West Indian arc.
But for the islands to be affected, the tropical wave would first have to actually turn into a depression, then a storm or even a hurricane, and its actual trajectory would have to match that predicted by the NHC calculations. So there is still a chance that the Antilles will be spared. The NHC nevertheless estimates that the tropical wave could evolve into a storm by the end of the weekend.
Between four and seven hurricanes could form in 2024
Generally speaking, the water temperature in the North Atlantic area, particularly high in 2024, is rather conducive to the formation of hurricanes. With global warming, these are also becoming more powerful. According to the American Oceanic and Atmospheric Observation Agency (NOAA), between four and seven hurricanes, category of at least 3 out of 5, could form in 2024. The phenomenon which could threaten the Antilles is not so exceptional : Hurricane season in the region usually occurs between June and November.
published on June 27 at 6:48 p.m., Floréane Marinier, 6Medias
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