Belgium soon to be depopulated? We are not there yet, but the number of births has been decreasing year after year since 1964. In Europe, the total fertility indicator is 1.53 children per woman throughout the European Union in 2021. Belgium was at 1.6 children and increased to 1.47 in 2023 according to the Belgian statistics office Statbel.
The negative effects will not be felt right away.Over the next 20 years, a child represents a cost: he produces nothing and we spend to educate him. The decline in fertility is rather beneficial in the very short term”, explains David De la Croix, professor of economics at IRES and UCLouvain. “When there are fewer children, it is easier to invest a lot in each child.”
Effects in 20 to 50 years
With fewer young people on the job market and proportionately more dependent people, the workforce will age and in the long term, the population will decrease. “We will see the first impacts in 30-50 years. It is estimated that 2.1 children per woman are needed to have a constant population over a century. Demographic phenomena are slow,” continues the professor.
The situation is alarming, especially since forecasts do not point to a reversal of the trend. Researchers from IHME at the University of Washington in a study published in the scientific journal The Lancet estimate that by 2050, 155 of 204 (76%) countries and territories will be below the generation renewal threshold. In 2100, this will affect 198 countries.
Belgium in the middle of baby blues: the number of births at its lowest since the Second World War
In terms of cost, it is not easy to calculate because many parameters are taken into account. Last year, the Study Committee on Aging estimated that in 2070, social spending should reach 29.9% of GDP, including 2.5% in family allowances and other social spending and 13.5% in pensions.
Demographic rearmament?
In France, the situation is so worrying that President Emmanuel Macron has spoken of “demographic rearmament”. In our country, Les Engagés supports several social measures such as the establishment of the “right to a crèche”. They also want to double the deductibility for dependent childcare costs (i.e. a saving of 1,450 euros more or 128 euros per month for a child in daycare 220 days per year). They also defend the implementation of “papavant”: compulsory paternity leave of 30 days to be taken in the first year of birth. “We are considering changing parental leave based on the Swedish model so that parents benefit from parental leave of 480 days to be divided between the two parents with a minimum of 60 days reserved for the father.indicates the party.
At the MR, we particularly advocate paternity leave to be taken between the birth and the child’s 17th birthday. The Liberals also want to make childcare costs a salary advantage.
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”In pronatalist policies, there is not much that has a very significant effect on fertility. The state has little influence. An important factor is gender equality. If the sharing of tasks is not equal and the woman wants career advancement, she will not consider having a child. We must promote gender equality within a household”blurts the economist.
The solution, argues David De la Croix, can come from immigration. “Migration as a replacement for fertility is a way of making up for the lack of young people in 20 years, but people are rather cautious.”
