2024 legislative elections in Tarn: a Cabrolier / Bonnecarrère duel in the 1st constituency

2024 legislative elections in Tarn: a Cabrolier / Bonnecarrère duel in the 1st constituency
2024 legislative elections in Tarn: a Cabrolier / Bonnecarrère duel in the 1st constituency

the essential
The outgoing RN MP, Frédéric Cabrolier, is in a favourable position. He will face Philippe Bonnecarrère (for the presidential majority) who narrowly qualified ahead of the socialist Margot Lapeyre.

The long-awaited duel between the outgoing deputy and the senator will take place. Frédéric Cabrolier (RN) and the centrist Philippe Bonnecarrère will meet in the second round of the legislative elections next Sunday. The dynamic seems clearly favorable to the outgoing MP. With 23,237 votes in his favor, or 39.53% of the vote, he achieved the best score for a far-right candidate in this constituency.

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The strong mobilization of the Tarnais was largely beneficial to him since with a participation of 71.42%, Frédéric Cabrolier more than doubled his score compared to 2022 when he obtained 8,999 votes. If it only comes in third position in Albi, it performs well in Castres and in the majority of villages.

Will he have a sufficient pool of votes to win in the second round? This is the paradox of this election. He admits, he “had to be close to 40% in the first round to avoid being left behind”.

Margot Lapeyre withdraws in favor of Philippe Bonnecarrère

Because opposite, Philippe Bonnecarrère will be able to count on the support of Margot Lapeyre, who quickly called for a vote for him. With 28.37% of the votes (16,673 votes), the socialist candidate, “proud of her campaign and her score” comes very close to the final for only 679 votes less than the centrist senator. She won in particular in Albi and improved the scores of the left compared to 2022, which was nevertheless in a favorable ballot…

Senator Bonnecarrère must therefore “turn the tide”. With 29.52% of the vote (17,352 votes), he concedes that “the first round was very difficult” and presents himself as “the candidate of concreteness and common sense”. His score is close to that, combined, of the 5 candidates of the center and the right in 2022. It remains to be seen whether the mobilization will work in his favor on the evening of July 7.

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