This Wednesday in Bonjour Bruxelles, Fabrice Grosfilley looks back on the elections of June 9 and the significant political change that appeared.
If we take a step back, the year 2024 will perhaps soon appear to be a pivotal year in our political life. A year which reset the counters to zero and caused a great upheaval. It is always difficult to want to make this kind of observation. A journalist is not a historian. We have our noses on the event, we become aware of the facts more and more quickly, one file chases the other, and we do not always have enough perspective to decode what is happening before our eyes. The historian has the time to observe things over the long term, to cross-reference sources and points of view. It can measure the depth of changes and their consequences.
However, even when hot, we can already see the importance of this triple vote from June 9. Firstly by the clarity of the results. The scale of the victory of the Reform Movement, indisputable in Wallonia, the real progress of the Committed, the slap taken by the environmentalists. We will add to this the decline of Défi in the Brussels Region, a progression of the PTB perhaps less strong than expected, and a contrasting assessment for the Socialist Party which is retreating in Wallonia, but holding its ground in Brussels. And if we look at the Flemish side, a victory on the edge of the N-VA which retains its leadership by a breath in front of the Vlaams Belang, the good health of Vooruit, the collapse of the Open VLD, the party of the Prime outgoing minister Alexander De Croo.
The overall picture is of a Flanders that still votes very much to the right anda Wallonia which has slid in the same direction. In Brussels, it is the left which remains in the slight majority. But a divided left, probably incapable of agreeing on a government program, which imposes a coalition government which, whatever its participants say, will be forced to govern at the center, with at the same time left-wing measures and right-wing measures to please everyone.
This is for the analysis of the results. There is also the internal life of the parties. If we can speak of a strong moment which could resemble a turning point in our political life, it is also because this election provokes a significant renewal of political staff. Jean-Marc Nollet, Gilles Vanden Burre, John Pitseys who are not re-elected to Ecolo. At DéFI, Sophie Rohonyi leaves the Federal Parliament. Or even Alexander De Croo in tears when the results were announced. We modestly pass over all these tenors who recorded a very disappointing score for their preferred voices. There was in the behavior of the voter on June 9 a scent of clearance. A lack of support for those who dominated yesterday’s politics, a desire for change which seems, in hindsight, quite obvious.
In recent days, many parties have been engaged in processes of refoundation or consolidation. Refoundation for Ecolo and DéFI who are looking for a new president. Those who take the leadership of these parties will face a major challenge. It will be necessary to manage parties that have become economically fragile with collaborators who have been made redundant. Less gray matter means less capacity to produce texts, to communicate, to influence political life. In the worst case, it is even the fear of disappearing altogether in the event of new electoral defeats in the years to come. There consolidation, it is the one in progress at the Reform Movement where Georges-Louis Bouchez has decided to anticipate the internal elections. Here too, the position of president is put back into play, unsurprisingly Georges-Louis Bouchez is a candidate for his own succession, and we do not see who could beat him, or even who could dare to challenge him. The man may have confused or irritated, but his disruptive communication, his way of splitting the debate hit the mark and were not for nothing in the progress of the reformers.
Finally, there is the general climate. With countries moving completely to the right and far-right movements that are no longer kept away from power. In Italy, in the Netherlands, maybe tomorrow in France. This changes the situation considerably. This gives, on the scale of the European continent, the feeling of a great shift. We perhaps do not understand the full extent of it today. With the paradox that for the moment in Belgium, the extreme right remains at this stage away from all governments. This Wednesday morning, Bart De Wever will report to the king on the progress of discussions with a view to forming a federal government. The president of the N-VA who today seems in a good position to become an informant and next head of government. The man who wanted the independence of Flanders could therefore become the Prime Minister of all Belgians. This is certainly not the most trivial of all these upheavals that we are currently observing. The Flemish regionalists will soon be at the top of the state. Without us knowing the real extent of the shift that they intend to print. Nor the speed at which they will want to take it.
▶ The editorial of Fabrice Grosfilley
