Country risk: Morocco maintains its position

Coface has just published its barometer of country and sectoral risks for the second quarter of 2024. In an economic context where the credit insurer sees positive prospects in the short term, Morocco has maintained its initial rating, “B” , in terms of country risk assessment, and that of “A4” with regard to the assessment of the business climate prevailing there, indicates Eco Inspirations this Tuesday, June 25, 2024.

Morocco is among the seven countries whose risk is “quite high“, alongside Senegal, Ivory Coast, Benin, Namibia, Tanzania and Rwanda, in a map of Africa dominated by risks falling into categories C, D and E, which correspond to the risks “students», «very high» et «extreme», Explains the daily.

With the exception of Botswana, rated “A4”, a risk deemed suitable, no other country on the continent holds the first four grades on the risk assessment scale. That being said, “Africa expected to ‘outperform’“, estimated Eco Inspirationsand exceed a growth rate estimated at 4% in 2025.

A trend which should become widespread, because the credit insurer foresees an acceleration in all the main economies of the continent: Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Ethiopia, like Morocco should benefit from this trend as well. than, to a lesser extent, South Africa.

Among the weak points noted, “the question of inequalities which constitute a constraint for Morocco, including poverty in rural areas, youth unemployment, lack of housing and corruption… In addition to structural tensions such as regional disparities and dependence on agriculture (12% of GDP and occupying a third of the population)“, explain Eco Inspirations.

Added to these factors is a certain vulnerability to climatic shocks and rainfall variability (with the impact of droughts on harvests) and commercial dependence on the European Union, including for imports. , which makes the Moroccan economy vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices.

Other shortcomings noted in this report: the weakness of Moroccan productivity and competitiveness, in the face of competition from other countries around the Mediterranean, such as Turkey or Egypt.