En conceding, this Friday, the draw against the Netherlands (0-0), the France team slightly complicated its task to qualify for the round of 16 of the Euro. Since the appointment of Didier Deschamps as head of the Blues in 2012, France has always finished at the top of their group during major international competitions. But this Euro 2024 could be an exception. Equipped with our calculator, we take a look at the possible scenarios which would lead the Blues to qualification… but also to elimination.
On the eve of its last group match, Tuesday against Poland, France has 4 points, as many as the Netherlands. But the latter scored one more goal, which allows them to be ahead of France. Rarely, the Blues do not have their destiny completely in hand on the eve of the last group match.
First place goal
Didier Deschamps’ players will be first in their group if they win against Poland and the Netherlands do not do the same against Austria. If the Netherlands beat the Austrians, then the Blues will have to win too, but with a greater margin. In short, France must do better against Poland than the Netherlands against Austria to ensure first place.
This would allow them to benefit from an additional day of rest before their round of 16. “I have planned a team that will seek qualification and the best possible place, knowing that behind us we will have a little more recovery time. » Finishing first will also make the Blues’ road to the final easier, because the Blues could then avoid Spain, Germany and, most certainly, Portugal – unless, a seemingly impossible scenario, the latter loses against the Georgia and Turkey, in their group, win their last match 3-0 or more.
It is therefore unlikely to see Didier Deschamps start many of the usual substitutes as he is accustomed to during the third group matches. In the event of first place, France will face the second in Group F, Portugal, in the round of 16. In the game of predictions, Turkey is best placed to be the opponent of the Blues.
But the French team can also finish second in their group, if the Netherlands win and maintain their lead in the number of goals. In this scenario, Antoine Griezmann and his teammates will face the second in Group E made up of Belgium, Romania, Ukraine and Slovakia. And there, everything is very open: the four countries in Group E each accumulate 3 points before their third and final match.
The catastrophic scenario of elimination
With four points in two matches, the French team has made a good start to the Euro from an accounting perspective. But this is not yet enough to secure a place in the final phase and the scenario of premature elimination is still relevant, even if the probability is slim. To get there, France would have to lose against the Poles, and Austria would have to beat the Netherlands and pass the Blues.
At the same time, four other third-placed teams would need to have a better record. A highly improbable scenario which could even be ruled out even before Tuesday’s match. If Albania does not beat Spain this Monday, then the Blues will be assured of finishing among the best thirds, a status which would ensure them qualification without even playing their last match.
