During the legislative elections of June 2022, Seine-Maritime had the particularity of not having any MP from the National Rally (RN) among its 10 constituencies, unlike the neighboring department of Eure where Marine Le Pen’s party had almost succeeded in winning the election. grand slam by reporting 4 constituencies out of 5. Five seinomarine constituencies had elected a representative of the presidential majority, and the other five had chosen a candidate from the parties which today make up the New Popular Front (NFP): three communists, one rebellious and a socialist.
What will happen next July 7? Guillaume Pennelle, the departmental secretary of the RN, immediately assures that “if we do not progress, it will be a disappointment. And progress means having deputies. » In his sights are the two constituencies where, during the last legislative elections, the representatives of the RN had followed the two deputies of the presidential majority, Marie-Agnès Poussier-Winsback and Xavier Batut, finishing a few hundred votes behind. These are the ninth and the tenth.
“If we look at the results at the European [respectivement 42,85 % et 43,64 % pour la liste de Jordan Bardella, NDLR], we should be able to win them,” continues Guillaume Pennelle, who is himself a candidate in the fourth constituency (the Elbeuf agglomeration), with a little less ambition: “Now, if there is a wave for our party, anything is possible. »
And even if Reconquest succeeded in presenting candidates in 9 out of 10 constituencies, Éric Zemmour’s party should not succeed in overshadowing the RN. “We know that in the second round, their votes will very largely fall on our candidates,” assures the departmental secretary of the RN, who also knew that no agreement could be envisaged with his counterpart at Les Républicains (LR), Jonas Haddad. “In Seine-Maritime, there was no hesitation,” reaffirms the latter. “We embody the Republican right, with the support of the region and the department. And we are neither close to Macron nor to the RN, but attached to our values.” He will face voters in the second constituency, hoping to do more than make up the numbers.
As for the troops loyal to Emmanuel Macron, all those leaving are returning there. With fears almost everywhere, even if Agnès Firmin-Le Bodo, of the Horizons party in the seventh constituency, and Annie Vidal in the second, have good hopes of remaining in territories where the left struggles to exist, and where the RN remains weak.
The mayor of Rouen, deputy of his deputy
The same could be said in the first, generally that of Rouen, but, for Damien Adam, elected by a few dozen votes in 2022 from the Nupes candidate, Maxime Da Silva, the opposition on the left will be raised. Because if the mayor of Rouen and president of the Metropolis, the socialist Nicolas Mayer Rossignol, does not appear to sit at the Palais-Bourbon, he has decided to get involved by being the deputy of Florence Hérouin-Léautey, her business assistant schools in Rouen. And by throwing all its weight into ensuring that it is a socialist who goes into battle.
“This is a historic moment that obliges us. We must rise to the occasion and take our responsibilities to prevent the extreme right from coming to power,” the mayor of Rouen keeps repeating, who has decided to put aside his aversion for the party for the duration of the campaign. by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who made him oppose Nupes in 2022.
On the left, everyone hopes that the good score of Raphaël Glucksmann’s list, which came first in the European elections (with 20.79% of the votes at department level), is the sign of an announced victory. Without certainties. Especially since, on the EELV side, the disappointment of having no chance of winning a deputy seat – they hoped at least to be able to present themselves in the second and only won the tenth, where the chances of election for the NFP are void – is noticeable. “We will play the game and do everything to counter the RN. We will postpone these discussions until later,” procrastinates Stéphane Martot, the regional secretary of EELV. “But, in a department like Seine-Maritime, where the presence of nuclear power will be even more important, where we have known Lubrizol and where Seveso sites abound, having no green elected official is an aberration. »
No dissidents, but uncertain scores
This remains the case of other outgoing deputies from the left, some of whom had dissident PS candidacies on their way in 2022. This was the case of the Insoumise Alma Dufour, who, in the fourth constituency, was 200 votes ahead of the mayor of Elbeuf, Djoudé Mérabet, to win in the second round against the RN. This time, will the label of the New Popular Front give it greater momentum to counter the RN dynamic? That’s the whole question.
The three elected communists – Édouard Bénard in the third, Sébastien Jumel in the sixth and Jean-Paul Lecoq in the eighth – on the other hand, leave with an advantage, in territories which are historically favorable to them. Only the first of them has yet to make a name for himself, since he succeeded Hubert Wulfranc during his mandate, a figure well known to voters in his constituency. “But, by saying that they are indestructible, we forget to look at the figures. On the Dieppe side, Jordan Bardella achieved scores never before achieved for our party [44,92 %, dans la sixième circonscription, NDLR]. This could be a good surprise,” hopes Guillaume Pennelle.
Finally, the only socialist to defend a seat, Gérard Leseul hopes that his territorial anchoring in the fifth constituency, and a united left to support him, will allow him to continue his action in the Assembly, even if, here again, he will certainly have strong to face Jean-Cyril Montier (RN), who had already tried his luck in 2022.
