West France and Ifop are launching a new monthly “politics and territories” barometer. Frédéric Dabi, general opinion director of Ifop, presents this new tool.
Also read. First Political and Territorial Barometer: “A deficit of proximity never seen before for a President”
What is the history of this barometer?
It is an “executive barometer”, which we initially designed to Paris Match. The aim was to find out the opinion – positive and negative – of the French on the action of the President, the Prime Minister, and see how it evolves according to current events. The first measurement dates back to December 2003. Between 2012 and spring 2024, it became the Ifop Fiducial barometer Paris Match Sud Radio. We take it back with West Franceby making it evolve.
With new questions?
A local, proximity dimension has been added, which does not exist in this type of barometer. No one asks respondents if they believe that the President or the Prime Minister “cares about all the territories of our country”. Nor what are the main concerns of the French “ here, in your town ». Or who, among politicians, understands or does not understand the lives of citizens? in all territories ». Our judgment on the state of the country, however, depends on what we experience where we are. Mixing the two dimensions – national and local – allows us to see things differently. It's a real plus.
“A representative sample”
Who will you interview each month?
Nearly 1,500 people, spread across the entire metropolitan area. A representative sample of this size constitutes a sort of “mini France” from which we can derive significant results by gender, age, social category, profession or political proximity, but also by region or type of city of residence. We can extract the responses from residents of rural areas, for example, or the great West, and compare them with the overall population.
What will this new barometer measure over time?
The twenty years of data we have thanks to the old barometer will allow us to make numerous comparisons. We will be able to see if Emmanuel Macron does better or worse than François Hollande or Nicolas Sarkozy at the same stage of their five-year term, or than himself compared to his first mandate. His popularity rating barely changed between March 2020 and March 2022. It deteriorated significantly in 2023, with the pension reform. The results we now have confirm that the dissolution made it fall much lower still…
Since the 2022 presidential election, West France is prohibited from publishing polls on voting intentions in the three months preceding an election. This barometer is not one?
No, that has nothing to do with it. I remind you that Emmanuel Macron will not be able to run again in 2027. Michel Barnier does not subscribe to this perspective either. The barometer covers both the action of politicians at a given moment and the concerns of the French on a daily basis. Voting intentions are not assessed on this type of question, nor on this type of data.
