CASE. “The rain and disruptions will last until next week…” Bad weather, until when?

CASE. “The rain and disruptions will last until next week…” Bad weather, until when?
CASE. “The rain and disruptions will last until next week…” Bad weather, until when?

the essential
After a sunny Ascension weekend, bad weather quickly returned to the four corners of France, reinforcing the idea of ​​a rainy spring.

As the famous saying goes, “after the rain comes the good weather.” The French believed in it last week, during this very long May 8 and Ascension bridge where many of them were able to enjoy summer weather, during this long weekend. Temperatures exceeded 25 degrees, approaching the 30 mark, in some regions, giving a delicious taste of summer.

But it didn’t last. Since this Sunday, May 12, chronic instability has hovered over France. The sun and heat gave way to rain and coolness across almost the entire country. Symbol of unstable weather and a spring that is rainier than the previous ones. “We have had 15% more precipitation than normal since March 1,” analyzes Léo Ducongé, meteorologist at Météo France.

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A figure which is confirmed by the precipitation recorded during this early spring. Nouvelle-Aquitaine, for example, recorded its second wettest recharge season since 1959 with 870 mm (plus 50% compared to normal) between September 1, 2023 and March 18, 2024. While it is not “only” 450 mm of rain fell (deficit of 25%) in Languedoc Roussillon during this period, according to Météo France figures.

No improvement before the middle of next week

In Midi Pyrénées, the phenomenon was the same during these seven months despite some notable differences within the region itself. “In terms of cumulative rainfall, there are inequalities between the south-east where it rained less and the north-west where there was more precipitation than normal,” says Léo Ducongé.

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However, the rain does not stop falling in these months of April and May. “It is back for a little while even if it is quite complicated to predict exactly because it will mainly be a shower. The disturbances will last, at least, until the beginning of next week, under the “influence of a cold drop (depression in the upper layers of the atmosphere associated with cold air, Editor’s note) which is centered on the Bay of Biscay”, explains Léo Ducongé.

Thunderclaps are also to be expected, particularly on the Pyrenean terrain, even if the formation of storms can be expected somewhat erratically throughout the region. In terms of temperature, you will have to take sweaters and other jackets out of the closets, because they will remain cool, despite a possible mild spell at the end of the week. “They will nevertheless remain below the seasonal averages which are normally around 22 or 23 degrees,” continues the meteorologist.

“The month of May is the rainiest in Toulouse”

The fault is an anticyclone which is sticking to its positions over the Azores. “Others come up from Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. We find ourselves between the two, with incursions of oceanic air, with its share of precipitation, clouds and humidity,” supports Léo Ducongé. Precipitation which reinforces the impression of a rainy spring. “It’s true that it is less dry, but also less hot than the last two,” he continues.

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However, he assures us, “in Toulouse, the month of May is statistically the rainiest”, “the fault of the first summer storms and the latest winter disturbances”. Climatologically, it is therefore not uncommon to see a rainy month of May, even more so in Toulouse. From there, will these disruptions continue?

Météo France forecasts envisage unstable weather until at least May 20. Afterwards, the return to season normals should go well. But not like last year. “In 2022, from the months of May and June, we had heat waves. Last year as well. There, it should be different, we are heading towards a normal month of June,” he concludes. You will have understood that to find the sun again, you will still have to be patient.

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