The assessment of the financial health of households and businesses in Occitanie in 2023 (and prospects for 2024) was an opportunity for Nathalie Ravet to present her future successor as director of the Banque de France in Nîmes.
Nathalie Ravet will undoubtedly miss the midday sunshine… The current director of the Banque de France in Nîmes will be leaving for Paris-Bastille next month. His successor, Patrick Saunier, visited the place while he was still a student in 1988, he remembers the city engulfed by floods…
The future director comes from Vienne where he heads the Banque de France branch in Poitiers. He will officially take up his duties at the head of the service from November 18 (the current deputy of Nathalie Ravet will be replaced by Claire Cavailles).
We have won the battle against inflation
Small victory for the Banque de France whose primary mission is to control the level of inflation. The first news announced is therefore rather good: “We have won the battle against inflation in 2024”, reported this Wednesday by the departmental director, the inflation rate fell to +2.2% in the third quarter, and is approaching the regulatory threshold of 2% (between 2022 and 2023, this rate oscillated between +8% and +10% ).
The decline should be “amplified” by the reduction in the cost of energy… subject to “new taxes” mentioned by Prime Minister Barnier, when the time to vote on the budget has come.
At the same time, the uncertainty linked to rising prices has led to a surge in household savings. Confident, the Banque de France director expects a return below the 2% threshold. “in the first half of 2025”.
Other good news, the unemployment rate is falling (in Occitanie as in Gard), the department has fallen below 10%, with an unemployment rate at 9.8%, still higher than the regional rate at 8.9 %. Among the factors: creation and return to employment, apprenticeship, etc.
Easier access to credit… it’s coming soon
As part of the easing of his monetary policy, the Governor of the Bank of France is considering a further reduction in key rates, “in October or December, depending on the analyses” specifies Nathalie Ravet (down to 3.9% after two successive declines). On the household side, the granting of real estate loans should therefore (finally) start to rise again.
For business loans, the context is “a little less favorable but it’s not a disaster”, notes the BDF director. Ahead of the hotel and catering industry, the sector most affected is unsurprisingly that of construction (which notably envisages a drop in investment in 2025).
