rejection of a second motion of censure targeting Justin Trudeau

Minority but still standing. The Canadian government of Justin Trudeau survived, Tuesday 1^is October, to a second motion of censure in as many weeks tabled in Parliament by his main rival. The 207-121 vote was largely a repeat of the Conservatives’ failed attempt last week to call a snap parliamentary election, and saw two small factions of Parliament siding with the Liberal government.

The text of the motion blamed the Liberals for their failure to address the housing shortage, rising crime and the rising cost of living, and for being “the most centralizing government in Canadian history”.

With a twenty-point lead in the polls, the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, is behind this motion which comes at a time when Justin Trudeau is in a weak position and when legislative elections must be held by the end of October 2025 .

Fractured Parliament

In power for nine years, the Liberal Party has suffered political setbacks since the beginning of the summer. The Canadian Prime Minister notably lost the support of his main left-wing ally a few weeks ago, who ended the political agreement aimed at supporting him. At the polls, his party has also recently lost seats in some of its strongholds.

But as with the first motion of censure in Parliament, the Conservatives failed to obtain the support of the two other opposition parties necessary to overthrow the government. The Canadian House of Commons currently has 153 Liberal MPs, 119 Conservative MPs, 33 Bloc Québécois MPs, 25 MPs from the New Democratic Party (NDP/left), two Greens and four independents.

Most analysts believe the government should be able to hold out until spring 2025, as smaller parties need time to prepare for new elections and the country traditionally does not hold elections in winter, due to of the climate. But some experts point out that “anything is possible”with minority liberals struggling to control a fractured Parliament.