Metropolitan France is exposed to a “fairly high” risk of epidemics linked to the tiger mosquito in the near future according to Anses, the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health Safety.
An increasingly increased risk of epidemics
The tiger mosquito is now present in the majority of metropolitan departments. These are in fact 78 departments who are now affected by this mosquito, whereas in 2004, only the Alpes-Maritimes department recorded its presence. In recent years, Dengue and Chikungunya cases have increased in France. For example, we were able to identify a fifties indigenous dengue cases in 2023 after record high 66 in 2022.
So far, indigenous cases have been localized outbreakswhere it has always been possible to trace the origins of contaminations. We speak of an epidemic from the moment when it is not possible to link all infected people to a focus, which means that transmissions escape the control device.
The increasing presence of the tiger mosquito in France, the favorable climatic conditions its reproduction and expansion, the arrival of infected people from areas where viruses circulate, the effectiveness of mosquito control and viral transmission are many parameters affecting the possible outbreak of an epidemic in France.
According to ANSES, an epidemic of arbovirosis (a family of viral diseases including dengue, chikungunya and Zika) has a probability of between 6 and 7, on a scale of 0 to 9, of occurring in the next 5 years in metropolitan France. Thus, it is increasingly likely that an epidemic of this type will occur in our country in the near future.
How can we limit the risks in our territory?
In the event of an epidemic, the means of prevention and control of arboviruses could be quickly saturated in France according to Anses, which therefore recommends adapting material, financial and human resources across the country. For example, it is important to strengthen prevention and treatment campaigns in the most sensitive locations during the highest risk periods, namely the summer period.
The financial system could quickly to find oneself in tension in the event of a major episode, particularly if the cases are numerous and spread over a large part of the metropolitan territory or if one epidemic coincides with another, as was the case, for example, in the Antilles in 2020, where a dengue epidemic developed at the same time as the Covid-19 crisis.
If the healthcare provision, particularly general practitioners and emergency services, is already under pressure or saturated, as may be the case during the mosquito activity period, then the risk would also be increased tenfold on our territory. Thus, Anses recommends better promote overseas experiences and of train caregivers in risk factors and warning signs of severe forms of arbovirosis.
An epidemic of this type, even a small one, could indeed affect the French economymostly tourism with less frequentation of the areas concerned, a significant parameter when we take into account that the tiger mosquito is most widespread today in the South and particularly the South-East of the country, places that are particularly popular during the summer.
