Swiss Re estimates that COVID-19 could cause the longest period of excess mortality in peacetime, pushing excess mortality in the general population in the United States to 3% and in the United Kingdom to 2.5% by 2033.
“A key driver of excess mortality is the ongoing impact of COVID-19, both as a direct cause of death and as a contributing factor to cardiovascular mortality,” the reinsurer said. “Reducing the impact of COVID-19 on older and vulnerable populations will be critical to returning excess mortality to zero.”
In this report, entitled The future of excess mortality after COVID-19it is reported that, from all causes, many countries are still reporting excess mortality rates higher than pre-pandemic levels. “If the ongoing impact of the disease is not curbed, excess mortality rates in the general population will remain up to 3% higher than pre-pandemic levels,” Swiss Re says.
Far from over
“COVID-19 is far from over,” he adds Paul MurrayCEO of Life and Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re.
“The United States is reporting an average of 1,500 COVID-19 deaths per week in 2023, a figure comparable to fentanyl- or firearm-related deaths. If this situation persists, our analysis suggests a potential scenario of elevated excess mortality extending into the next decade.”
Measures such as vaccinating vulnerable people, medical advances, returning to regular health services and adopting healthier lifestyles will be key to bringing these numbers under control, the report says.
Excess mortality in Canada
In 2021, excess mortality increased to 23% above the 2019 baseline in the United States and 11% in the United Kingdom. In Canada, the country reported very low excess mortality in 2020, with a gradual increase peaking in 2022 and 2023. Between 2020 and 2023, excess mortality in Canada attributable to COVID-19 reached 6.1% in 2020–2023, 10.1% in 2022, and 5.9% in 2023.
“Excess mortality in the general population is an important indicator for insurers, as changes in the leading causes of death may require a reassessment of additional risks in their mortality portfolios. Current levels of excess mortality are concerning,” the report states.
“This poses a potential challenge for life and health insurers, with potentially several years of high mortality claims ahead,” the reinsurer added.
“Insurers may need to continue to closely monitor excess mortality and its underlying causes in the general population, as well as differences between the general population and insured populations.”
