How Ontario plans to meet its electricity needs by 2050

Electricity demand in Ontario increased this year for the first time in two decades. The electrification of industries and transportation, combined with strong population growth, will cause this demand to jump by 75% by 2050, according to the Independent Electricity System Operator.

In 2023, the province produced approximately 149 terawatt hours of electricity. In 2050, we will need more than 260, according to estimates from the organization that manages the electricity network.

It’s like adding four and a half cities the size of Toronto to the electricity grid.

The minister sees it as a big challenge which motivates him to do more. The Ontario government has multiplied press briefings since the publication of these forecasts in mid-October.

We need to think beyond four-year electoral cycles. We are thinking about the next 25 yearshe said.

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Too little, too late?

The province has embarked on the largest nuclear expansion in Canadian history, but experts fear it may be too little too late.

We know that developing projects takes a very long time. We only have to think of nuclear power plants, where construction can last 10, 12 yearssays Jean-Thomas Bernard, economist specializing in energy at the University of Ottawa.

Located east of Toronto, the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station – which alone provides 14% of Ontario’s electricity – will be out of service from late 2026 until the mid-2030s.

A similar schedule is envisaged for the construction of three new small reactors at the Darlington power station, further east, in Bowmanville.

Doug Ford’s government also announced last year a project to expand the Bruce nuclear complex on the eastern shore of Lake Huron. The addition of a third power station (nicknamed Bruce C) would almost double its electricity production capacity, but the province has not given a precise timetable for its commissioning.

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During the renovation work at the Pickering generating station, part of the electricity production will depend on natural gas, underlines David Devereaux, director of resource planning for the SIE.

We also see a role for natural gas in the long term as we add more intermittent sources to the grid. such as solar and wind power, he said.

Minister Lecce insists that natural gas is only used in rare scenarios, when the need is dire, such as the coldest winter days of the year. Yet by 2023, about 13% of Ontario’s electricity generation would come from fossil fuel-fired power plants.

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Currently, the way to fill this lack of energy, when we need it, is natural gas power plants, which obviously emit greenhouse gases and that’s what we want to combat by advocating electricity.underlines economist Jean-Thomas Bernard.

That’s not a net gain there.

What about renewable energies?

One of the Ford government’s first decisions after taking office in 2018 was to cancel hundreds of green energy projects, including a wind farm already under construction. These contract breaches cost Ontario taxpayers a total of $231 million.

Six years later, both the Minister of Energy and the SIE argue that renewable energy has a place in this expansion of the electricity grid. The province recently launched a call for tenders to increase energy production by 5,000 megawatts ownall types combined.

Why this about-face? According to Minister Lecce, the contracts signed under the former liberal government were too costly and restrictive. Canceling these projects ultimately saved Ontario nearly $800 million, he points out.

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Renewable energy is important and can be affordable now that we have storage capacity. Before, we had no place to store this electricitysays Stephen Lecce.

Asked about the approximately $6 billion that the government spends annually to keep electricity rates low, the minister replied that subsidies are still necessary for the moment, but that he is counting possibly eliminate them.

You could have the cleanest power grid in the world, but if families are becoming poorer due to energy prices, I’m sorry, but I just don’t see that as a viable optionhe says.

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Energy-hungry data centers

Another factor that will contribute to the surge in demand: artificial intelligence and the proliferation of data centers.

They are very energy-intensive and there are more and more of them, says Mr. Devereaux. They use a lot of electricity, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week because of their computing power, but also to power their cooling systems.

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According to the projections of the SIEthe electricity consumption of data centers will jump to 14 terawatt hours by 2038. On the other hand, beyond the next 13 years, the organization assumes that this demand will remain stable, which may not be the case.

Everything will depend on how the economy will decarbonize. Some studies we reviewed estimate that electricity demand in Ontario will doublesays David Devereaux.

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