Despite global efforts to promote greener and renewable fuels, coal continues to play a central role in global energy consumption. According to a recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report titled “Coal 2024 – Analysis and forecast to 2027,” coal demand and production are expected to reach record levels in 2024, marking an important turning point after the fall observed in 2020 during the Covid-19 health crisis.
A recovery in demand after the pandemic
Global demand for coal, which fell in 2020 due to restrictions linked to the pandemic, has picked up again since 2021. According to the IEA, demand is expected to increase by 1% in 2024 to reach a record level of 8, 77 billion tonnes. This recovery is supported by the world's three largest coal producers: China, India and Indonesia, which will play a key role in increasing production.
Key figures for the global coal market in 2024
In China, coal demand is expected to reach a new annual record of 4.9 billion tonnes, an increase of 1%. China remains the world's largest consumer of coal, with a massive share of total demand. As for India, it is expected to increase by 5% to reach 1.3 billion tonnes. India is experiencing economic growth, which is leading to increasing energy demand, particularly for industry. Indonesia, for its part, could see its coal production reach record levels. As one of the world's leading producers, the country will benefit from increasing demand in the Asian region.
In contrast, the European Union and United States markets are expected to see a continued decline in demand, although slower than in 2023. This trend is linked to decarbonization efforts in these regions and the transition to renewable energy sources.
The situation in Africa and South Africa
In Africa, coal demand is expected to increase by 6 million tonnes in 2024, reaching a total of 191 million tonnes. South Africa, the continent's main consumer, will continue to concentrate the majority of this demand, representing more than 86% of regional consumption, with an estimate of 165 million tonnes.
Stabilization expected after post-COVID recovery
Although global demand for coal is increasing, this increase is much lower than those observed after the Covid-19 crisis. In 2021, demand jumped 7.7% after the shock of the pandemic. It then increased by 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. According to the IEA, after this significant increase of more than 1.2 billion tonnes since 2020, global coal demand is expected to stabilize around of 8.87 billion tonnes by 2027. Global production is also expected to stabilize at the same level by this deadline.
Outlook for the future
IEA experts point out that although demand for coal continues to grow, energy transition efforts and decarbonization policies in several regions of the world are expected to slow this growth in the long term. Reducing dependence on coal in developed countries and the rise of renewable energy will be key factors in reversing this trend in the coming decades.
Moctar FICUU / VivAfrik
