The introduction of a carbon tax in the 2025 Finance Law marks a decisive turning point in Morocco’s environmental strategy. This initiative, inspired by international experiences, raises questions about its economic repercussions and its potential to sustainably transform the national industrial sector.
Morocco is taking a major step in its fight against global warming with the announcement of this tax in the 2025 Finance Law. By adopting this system, which breaks with traditional tax policy, the government aims to reconcile ecological transition and economic competitiveness.
In a global context where pressures to reduce CO₂ emissions are increasing, Morocco relies on models such as the European Union’s (EU) Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to adapt to requirements of international markets.
However, the impact of this tax, both economically and environmentally, will depend on the terms of its implementation and the support measures proposed to exposed sectors, according to the “Flash strategy carbon tax” report from BMCE Capital. global research (BKGR).
The European precedent
The EU has already established a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), aimed at protecting its industry while limiting global emissions. This system imposes a tax on imported products based on their carbon footprint, thus reducing the risk of unfair competition from countries that are less demanding in environmental matters. For Moroccan exporters, complying with similar standards becomes crucial to maintain their access to the European market, the Kingdom’s main trading partner.
Morocco seems to be moving towards a progressive tax, inspired by the European model, in order to preserve the competitiveness of sensitive sectors such as cement and steel. This progressiveness would provide companies with time to rethink their industrial processes and adapt to new environmental standards, as highlighted in the BKGR report.
Impacts to monitor
The sectors most affected by the tax are those with high CO2 intensity, such as the cement industry and the steel industry. However, these industries remain relatively protected, as most of their production is intended for the local market.
On the other hand, strategic sectors such as agri-food and textiles could suffer negative effects if the MACF were to be expanded, notes BKGR. The implementation of this tax could lead to additional costs for energy-intensive industries, in particular the cement industry, the steel industry and the chemical sector.
According to BKGR, nearly 10% of Moroccan exports could be affected if the MACF extended to other sectors such as agri-food. In addition, a 5.72% decrease in Moroccan exports could occur if companies do not adopt practices to reduce their carbon footprint.
With 65% of its exports destined for the European market, Morocco finds itself particularly vulnerable to changes in international environmental standards. The redistribution of revenue generated by the tax, in the form of subsidies or financial support, will therefore be crucial to guarantee a balanced and socially acceptable transition.
A tax to green the economy
The introduction of the carbon tax in Morocco is part of the Kingdom’s climate commitments, particularly those made during COP22 in Marrakech. By imposing a cost on the most polluting activities, the government hopes to encourage businesses to adopt more environmentally friendly practices.
BKGR believes that this mechanism could be implemented gradually, in order to find a balance between incentive and financial impact.
Beyond reducing emissions, the carbon tax also aims to stimulate investment in green technologies and strengthen the use of renewable energy. With its significant potential in this area, Morocco has a unique opportunity to transform this environmental constraint into a lever for competitiveness.
The country thus aims to attract investments in green energies, with an investment plan of 15 billion dirhams planned by 2027.
Impacts to control
However, implementing this tax is not without challenges. It could result in additional costs for energy-intensive industries, potentially affecting their competitiveness in international markets. The BKGR report warns of these economic risks, emphasizing the importance of targeted support for these vulnerable sectors.
At the same time, the revenue generated by the carbon tax could be used to finance the ecological transition. Fair redistribution, particularly in the form of subsidies for green projects or aid to vulnerable households, will be essential to guarantee the social acceptability of this reform.
Towards a sustainable and competitive economy
Despite the uncertainties, the carbon tax represents a real opportunity for Morocco to strengthen its position in global value chains. By promoting a carbon-free economy, the Kingdom could not only improve its ecological reputation, but also attract sustainability-minded investors. To ensure the success of this measure, it will be necessary to combine pragmatism and ambition.
“Although there is room for improvement, the carbon tax remains a key tool for the ecological transition. Its adoption constitutes a crucial step for Morocco’s energy development. The success of its implementation will depend on the balance between economic efficiency, social sustainability and competitiveness of businesses, and must be accompanied by a global and inclusive strategic vision,” concludes the BKGR report.
Faiza Rhoul / ECO Inspirations
