the final blow for real estate?

This Tuesday, June 25, the 6th was held in Paris^e edition of the National Conference on Housing and the City. The event, in which Empruntis participated, allowed the many professionals present to express their concerns. In question : the surprise call for early legislative elections, which precipitates a convalescing market towards an uncertain future.

Borrowing rates recorded on 06/26/2024

Backwards

After two years of crisis, the clouds were beginning to dissipate. Improvement in rates, possible rebound in prices, easing of the ECB… For real estate, optimism was making a timid return. A presidential address was enough to reshuffle the cards.

“We took this dissolution badly” concedes Olivier Salleron at the head of the French Building Federation (FFB). It must be said that the head of state’s decision dampens the few hopes raised by the appointment of Guillaume Kasbarian. The 5^e Minister of Housing for Emmanuel Macron’s seven-year term has benefited, until now, from a rather benevolent reception among some of the representatives of the sector. This promising sequence, which began less than five months ago, is ultimately compromised by the upheaval of the electoral calendar.

The worse is yet to come ?

The FNAIM, through the voice of its president Loïc Cantin, recalls that “the housing market does not like political instability”. To the doubt as to what will come out of the polls on July 7 is added the immobility inherent in a campaign: “we are falling behind when we already had a lot” regrets the union leader. The worst part is that the blockage may just be beginning.

Indeed, a hypothesis which is emerging and which seems to give observers a cold sweat is that of an absence of absolute majority for the future legislature. Knowing that a new dissolution is not possible before the summer of 2025, the country would remain in fact ungovernable for many months. In other words, public power would be temporarily paralyzed to combat a real estate crisis that Loïc Cantin describes as “the most violent in our history for 100 years”.