State of the road network | “Perfect storm” threatens roads

(Quebec) Tired of orange cones? In fact, there should be many more of them, as Quebec’s roads need to be repaired. A committee of independent experts fears an “accelerated deterioration in the state of the road network in the coming years” because the Legault government is not yet doing enough to maintain it. A “perfect storm” is even on the horizon, he warns in a report sent to the Ministry of Transport.

Impactful conclusion

Created under the Couillard government in 2016, the committee of independent experts is mandated to produce an opinion each year on the Ministry of Transport’s road work programming. Its most recent report is dated December 22, but it was posted on the Ministry’s website only this week – and discreetly. The conclusion by Sylvain Beaudry, François Chapdelaine and Louis Lévesque is powerful.

“A perfect storm seems to be looming on the horizon with regard to the state of the road network: road network asset maintenance budgets were already chronically insufficient to stop the growth of the asset maintenance deficit, until ‘recently increases have favored bonuses [ajout de routes] to the detriment of maintaining assets [l’entretien du réseau existant], demand for various construction jobs has reached the limit of industry capacity due to the increase in projects in other sectors, the resulting competition for resources – workers, contractors and engineers – is leading to the increasing cost inflation. »

A poor road network

According to the most recent data, 43% of road network infrastructure (based on value) is in very poor (30%) or poor condition (13%). This percentage is similar to the state average for all public infrastructure. Schools still win the prize, with 56% of establishments in poor or very poor condition. On the other hand, the road network has the most infrastructure in very poor condition (30%). This means that they absolutely have to be replaced.

A deficit is growing

The road network asset maintenance deficit continues to widen, reports the committee of independent experts. This deficit represents the amount that would need to be invested for the network to be in satisfactory condition. It amounted to $20.2 billion last year, as can be read in the report. Today it reaches 20.4 billion. When the government came to power, it stood at 14.7 billion.

A calculation called into question

But be careful: the committee of independent experts questions the calculation methods of the Ministry of Transport. The drop in the deficit observed in 2021 is “artificial” and results from a change in methodology. The committee is also “surprised” that the increase in the asset maintenance deficit “is not greater”. He notes that this deficit has increased “very little” in terms of higher network infrastructure (motorways, national and regional roads). However, almost 40% of the upper network’s assets “are in an E condition, so must be essentially rebuilt”, and “the costs of their rehabilitation are expected to be directly affected by the high inflation observed in construction in 2021 and 2022 “.

“The Committee does not have the information necessary to understand in detail the dynamics of the evolution of the asset maintenance deficit of the road network, whether with regard to roadways or structures. Neither the Ministry nor the Treasury Board secretariat have made public a detailed description of the methodology to date,” we read in its report.

Insufficient increase in investments

For years, the committee has denounced “the systematic underfunding of the road network in relation to all infrastructure”. Last year, 12% of infrastructure investments went to the road network while its asset maintenance deficit represented 58% of the overall infrastructure deficit. The committee welcomes the recent increase in investments planned to maintain the road network. These investments reached 24.4 billion over a period of ten years, between 2023-2033. They increased to 28.3 billion for the period 2024-2034.

Despite everything, the committee fears an acceleration in the deterioration of the state of the road network in the coming years. Because the increase in investments must be put in the context of inflation. According to economist Louis Lévesque, annual investments are in fact lower than before if we take inflation into account. Over the years, fewer kilometers of road are rehabilitated for the same amount invested. “The high inflation of the last two years has had a considerable impact on the cost of asset maintenance projects on the road network and on the volume of work carried out,” underlines the committee.

What’s more, the Ministry “does not take into account the inevitable natural degradation of assets during the 10-year period of the Quebec Infrastructure Plan. We therefore end up with a systematic overestimation of the predictable positive impact on the state of the network, leaving the false impression that the asset maintenance deficit will be largely absorbed after 10 years. In an interview, Mr. Lévesque believes that “the recent changes to the Quebec Infrastructure Plan” with the increase in investments, “are good news. But is this enough to stop growth and reduce the asset maintenance deficit? The answer is no. […] It’s the problem of the boat having a hole. There are 10,000 gallons of water per hour coming in, we used to pump 4,000, and it’s sure that it’s better if we now pump 5,000. But that doesn’t change the fact that there are more and more water in the boat. »

“Difficult choices”

Several factors will complicate the government’s task of trying to keep the boat afloat, notes the committee. The construction industry is in demand from all sides; his capacity to carry out projects reaches its limit. The labor shortage in this sector is significant. This results in an increase in prices. Projects are also delayed because there is too great a gap between the Department’s cost estimate and the price of the bids received. There are also delays in the work, according to the committee. The Ministry has its own internal challenges: it is the victim of employee departures and recruitment difficulties. The committee notes significant turnover in management positions and a “glaring lack” of civil engineering technicians.

“The situation we are in is the result of the choices that were made in the last 10, 15, 20, 30 years,” says Louis Lévesque. There is one part for which we cannot blame the current government. He is not the one responsible for the poor maintenance of the road network over the last 50 years. But [les autorités] are responsible for their decisions. And their decisions are that[elles] have not really prioritized maintaining road network assets, [elles] are in catch-up mode. But current financial and economic constraints will make restoring the state of infrastructure, including the road network, very very very difficult. This means that choices will have to be made. And difficult choices. »