Exchange exchange volumes of Exchanges have been decreasing since December. But the passage beyond $ 100,000 could allow volumes to grow again, as in 2024. The President of the United States, D. Trump, wishes to see the rates drop, but there is little chance that this will happen. Until now, J. Powell has known that there was no emergency. Unless the Fed surprises operators, rates should remain within a range between 4.25 % and 4.5 %.
After a dark period on the financial markets -because of Trump’s customs tariffs -, will risky assets free themselves and explode upwards? Or is the rebound just a break before a new correction? We immediately analyze risky and shelter assets!
Towards a return to $ 104,000 for Bitcoin?
Difficult to know if the correction Bitcoin is over. In any case, the course has been going up since early Apriland he is back beyond the Key area around $ 92,000. The increase allowed a bullish crossing at the level of mobile averages 9 and 18 :
In the event of a fall, the course could be caught up in the Support at $ 92,000 and between Hight mobile medium. As long as the $ 92,000 hold, the BTC has the opportunity to join the Resistance at $ 104,000. It will be necessary to cross this resistance to be able to record a nouvel ATH. It is now about 110 days that the BTC did not score ath. Buyers must defend $ 92,000, because otherwise, sellers could Take the opportunity to bring the course Under $ 80,000.
The momentum indicator RSI continues to climb Beyond the downstream trendline. THE Momentum is clearly bullish in unit of time 3 days.
Risk off: the dollar remains fragile and gold continues to climb
The dollar could drop further
Historically, having a low dollar is rather positive for cryptocurrencies. However, since the beginning of the year, the dollar tumbleand cryptos could end up taking advantage of this drop. The course clearly sent a Lower signal by falling under the support at 101 :
The dollar rebounded For a few days, but he finds himself Close to the mobile averages 9 and 18 leasers and the resistance at 101. Consequently, the course could block and start a new decline to the Support at 97.5. A recovery of the level to 101 as a support could cause bullish volatility to the next Resistance at 106.
The RSI is a lower For several months, and for the moment, he has not been indiscriminately encouraging. Therefore, these are the sellers who have the advantage of the momentum.
Gold could continue to record ATH
The course of gold evolves at the increase since October 2022. The active refuge of reference to Taking advantage of macroeconomic uncertainties (customs tariffs) to get the 3 500 $. For the moment, the course is bullishand the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) Haussier acts as a support:
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If the course breathes, it could find the Hight mobile medium And bounce back to the last summits. To continue climbing, you will have to record a Closing beyond $ 3,500. On the other hand, a fall Under the support at $ 3,150 could bring the course back to the next level Solid support located at $ 2,950. For its part, the RSI diverges For several months. There Trend of running out of steam According to this momentum indicator, and a new divergence could materialize in the event of a fall under 47. It will take a change of trend net to estimate that gold could have completed his rise.
Face au Bitcoin, l’or rebounded Since the end of 2024. But the trend of the gold/btc pair remains generally down :
If the BTC manages to explode beyond $ 100,000the pair could go to the lower in December. Probabilities are always oriented towards a new decrease in the coursebut the Momentum is solid Since the beginning of 2024. In fact, the RSI has not shown nothing negative, it has even validated a bullish divergence. A breathlessness is indicated on the RSI, but the trend remains to the advantage of bitcoin For now.
The US market finds colors
Back to the resistance level at $ 5,650 for the S&P 500
Le S&P 500 a fell by more than 20 % Between February and April. But the buyers have shown themselves around the Support at $ 5,000and the course has an increase in more than 15 % from the lowest. Following this beautiful reaction on the side of buyers, the course is found against the Key level at $ 5,650 :
It will be necessary Take up the $ 5,650 as a medium to hope for a return to the level of February summits. If the sellers regain hands here, the course could return to the Support at $ 5,250.
The RSI momentum indicator is closer to the downward trendline. As long as the RSI is located under the trendline, the Momentum is feverish.
The Nasdaq must break the resistance at $ 20,300 to find the last peaks
The Nasdaq also has rebounded after a drop of more than 20 %and the course finds itself close to the Resistance at $ 20,300. This resistance must be broken for Review the course around the 2025 summits :
If the course Blocked against $ 20,300 and around the mobile averages 9 and 18 hobbles, a new fall to the Support at $ 18,200 is possible. THE RSI is downward And it is under the downward trend. As long as the situation is thus, the The moment is fragile.
Key elements to remember
The Bitcoin price keeps the key level at $ 92,000, and we can still hope for a return beyond $ 100,000. The BTC could notably benefit from a low dollar. The other risky assets, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, are back at the level of important resistors. The passage beyond these levels could make it possible to find the last heights. Gold continues to be bullish from a technical point of view, and it could soon be exchanged beyond the $ 3,500. If the BTC remains strong, this is not the case with Ethereum (ETH) which always has the possibility of falling under $ 1,500.
