AA/ANKARA/Murat Temizer
The European natural gas and electricity markets should remain relatively stable until the end of May, according to the latest monthly forecasts from the Cabinet of the International Agency for the Analysis of Raw Materials (ICIS), published Wednesday evening.
This status quo results from a balance between the lowering pressures linked to global economic concerns and the fundamentals tense in terms of supply, as well as seasonal variations in demand.
On the gas side, the TTF contract at one month of due downside fell in April, closing at € 31.86/MWh on April 29 its lowest level since July 2024 under the effect of recession of recession aroused by the announcement by US President Donald Trump from a universal customs tariff of 10 %.
At the same time, EU proposals aimed at lowering the 90 % to 83 % gas stock stocks.
Globally, the LNG market remains tense, with a planned deficit of 300,000 tonnes.
The demand in Asia-Pacific continues to grow, carried by the air conditioning needs.
In the electricity sector, prices should remain generally stable in May, despite contrasting dynamics between supply and demand.
-In France, nuclear production remains stable compared to last year, but persistent problems on interconnections weigh on exports and accentuate regional disparities.
Record production of Nordic hydroelectricity supports exports to the continent, while the low levels of hydraulic storage in the Balkans, as well as the risks of drought in France and Italy, exert an upward pressure on prices.
The electrical markets of Southeast Europe seem to be overvalued for the coming months, with risk premiums powered by comparisons with the extreme heat wave of 2024.
In addition, the boom in solar transforms the timetable price dynamics, causing more frequent negative episodes in the middle of the day.
The gas prices should remain in a narrow range, but the risks linked to global supply, competition on LNG and storage policies could generate volatility.
Translated from English by Sanaa Amir
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