Half of the world’s population will be called to the polls in 2024, from India to the United States, including Mexico, France and other European countries. With one observation at the end of this record electoral year: the weakening of the parties in power in democracies.
For the first time in more than a century, all ruling parties in the 12 Western countries voting in 2024 suffered setbacks. The Financial Times noted a historic decline in the electoral score of outgoing parties of 7% on average.
We are witnessing a sort of general weakening of political power and therefore of the capacity of governments to respond to the problems that citizens face.
According to Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at Ipsos, we find this trend in “all major democracies”. “Even in India or South Africa, the parties in power remained in place but still suffered a very clear erosion,” he illustrates in the show Tout un monde.
>> In India, the Prime Minister was re-elected but lost seats and his absolute majority, read: A third electoral victory for Narendra Modi in India, but fewer seats
“National factors linked to local situations” and “the inflation crisis which weighs on the balance sheet of those leaving” explain the reasons for this decline of the parties in power, according to Mathieu Gallard.
Inability to manage crises
Loïc Blondiaux, professor of political science at the University of Paris-I Panthéon Sorbonne, believes that this development also comes from the inability of outgoing governments to manage crises. “It is not at all surprising that the governments in power fail to be re-elected where there is a possibility of alternation as their capacities to resolve these crises are limited,” he considers. “From my point of view, we are seeing a kind of general weakening of political power and therefore of the ability of governments to respond to the problems that citizens face.”
And the trend will undoubtedly continue in 2025, with for example the possible non-re-election of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in February.
>> On the subject, read: Dissolution of the German Parliament, early elections set for February 23
Advancement of the populist right
This weakening benefited nationalist and populist groups, such as the National Rally in France, which played the immigration card, a theme present in many other elections around the world. It is also this same card which favored the election of Donald Trump in the United States.
The Financial Times also observes that the vote of young men whose socio-economic status is weakened has contributed to this rise of populist right-wing parties. “Young men, including ethnic minorities, Latinos and blacks, voted for Donald Trump,” notes Loïc Blondiaux. “This reflects both the seduction of the virilist archetype that Donald Trump represents, but also a deep fear regarding the evolution of gender relations. The far right succeeds perfectly, it seems to me , to address their fears and anxieties and to represent them politically,” he concludes.
>> To go further, also read: The breakthrough of the far right is the result of the crises sweeping across Europe, says former Spanish minister Arancha Gonzalez
Radio subject: Patrick Chaboudez
Website text: Julie Marty
