Three experts analyze Justin Trudeau’s announcement

The Press interviewed three experts to decipher Justin Trudeau’s resignation speech, to better understand its ins and outs.

Why now?

“People who are interested in politics expected this decision. His minutes were numbered,” says Thierry Giasson, professor in the political science department at Laval University.

The main reason given by Justin Trudeau to justify his departure is the paralysis of parliamentary work, which he believes has continued for months. However, according to experts, it was rather tensions within his own party that pushed him to resign, with the tipping point being the shattering departure of Chrystia Freeland in mid-December.

Also read “Freeland leaves Trudeau cabinet and denounces “costly political tricks””

“It’s really something that struck me in his speech,” underlines Frédérick Bastien, professor in the political science department at the University of Montreal. “It’s as if he hadn’t yet absorbed the dissension, the lack of support within his cabinet. »

An opinion shared by Justin Massie, full professor in the political science department at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).

“He doesn’t explain why he took so long” before resigning, he notes.

“And if he hadn’t tried to demote Freeland, we might not be here today,” he says.

Thierry Giasson, however, has a different reading of the situation. For him, it is not necessarily a lack of lucidity of the situation on the part of the Prime Minister; but rather a communication strategy.

“He is not obliged to recall this reality. I didn’t expect him to do it,” he says. “It’s really an exercise in political communication. »

What do we think of the assessment he draws up?

During the question period, Justin Trudeau notably mentioned his main pride and his greatest regret, following a request from a journalist. And his answers surprised experts.

He recalled being elected in 2015 on the promise “to work for the middle class”, before claiming to have reduced poverty and helped families. “We have created an economy that works,” he added.

All in a context where inflation has hit households hard in recent years, and where the government presented, in mid-December, a much higher deficit than anticipated.

Experts also noted that the only regret he mentioned was that he failed to change the electoral system. “It’s a promise from 2015…”, recalls Frédérick Bastien.

Also read “Failed electoral reform | “I should have used my majority,” says Trudeau »

“There really is a gap. We are not at all in repentance,” analyzes the expert.

“He seems disconnected from the reality of ordinary people, outside the Ottawa bubble,” adds Justin Massie.

What image did he want to convey in his speech?

Justin Trudeau has repeatedly used terms relating to the war, presenting himself as a “ fighter » having “fought for his country”, not backing down “easily from a fight”.

“He remains convinced that he could have done better than anyone else and won the next election,” explains Justin Massie. “You could call it ego, or hubris. »

Convinced that he could pull off a feat, as in the 2015 elections, “he really believes that he had his chances of winning,” adds the expert.

What will be the next steps?

With the prorogation of Parliament until March 24, Justin Trudeau gives his party time to organize elections to appoint a new leader of the Liberal party. The latter will then take his place as prime minister, and will notably face Pierre Poilievre during the next elections, which should probably be held in the spring.

“After a period of at least 36 days of campaigning, that brings us to elections in May,” calculates Frédérick Bastien.

The way in which the new leader will be designated (date, voting method, etc.) will be defined by the Liberal Party in the coming days.

“I’m curious to see what’s going to happen.” Who will raise their finger, or who will stop themselves from going there. It’s going to be interesting,” underlines Thierry Giasson.

According to him, it is likely that at the end of this, Justin Trudeau will leave politics. “I would be very surprised if he ran as a deputy,” he says.

Why delay before calling the elections?

According to polls, most of the other potential candidates for the Liberal Party would do better than Justin Trudeau against Pierre Poilievre, recalls Justin Massie.

“It creates a little uncertainty in the next elections. But not to the point, according to the data we have today, to think of any scenario other than an election leading to a majority conservative government,” he says.

A new person would therefore take Justin Trudeau’s place, only to suffer a probable defeat against the Conservatives shortly after. Is this really a good strategy?

“He leaves his party in a complete mess,” says Thierry Giasson.

“He chose to leave on his own terms, but it may be a little late. “It’s a lot to ask of his party,” he adds. “But maybe he has reasons that we don’t know. »

For Justin Massie, a better strategy might have been to call an election now, without having to choose a new party leader.

“He could have embodied this defeat and left it to his successor to initiate a transition to build an opposition party,” he explains.

Above all, by doing so, the country remained paralyzed for more than two months. Justin Trudeau thus leaves Canada in a weak position, according to the expert, at the very moment when Donald Trump is preparing to reconquer the White House on January 20.

“Two and a half months is both a short period of time, but much too long in this context,” adds Justin Massie. “The future will tell us if it was the right choice. »