‘Nobody wants war’ in South Lebanon, Blinken says

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a conference at the Brookings Institute on Monday evening in Washington that neither Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel nor Iran wanted to see the conflict in South Lebanon that has been going on since October 8 escalate into a wider conflict, according to a report released by the US administration.

He warned, however, that the current dynamics of the conflict could derail it, as tensions have risen significantly on both sides of the border in recent weeks.

Responding to a question, the Secretary of State began by saying that “one of Washington’s primary objectives from the outset was to do everything in its power to ensure that this conflict does not spread, does not escalate, including and especially in northern Israel, in Lebanon where Hezbollah is located, and perhaps even beyond.”

A paradox

“I think there’s a paradox right now, which is that we don’t think any of the major players really want war. Israel doesn’t want war, although they’re prepared to engage in war if necessary to protect their interests. I don’t think Hezbollah really wants war. Lebanon certainly doesn’t want war because they’d be the main victim. And I don’t think Iran is in favor of war, in part because they want to make sure that Hezbollah isn’t destroyed and that they can hold on to it as a card if they ever get into a direct conflict with the Jewish state,” Blinken said.

“On the other hand, there are forces, a dynamic, that can lead in this direction and that we are determined to try to stop,” continued the senior American official, stressing that approximately “60,000 Israelis have been forced to leave their homes in northern Israel” and that “many Lebanese from the south have also been driven from their homes.” There are nearly 95,000 according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, which is based on figures from the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Developing diplomacy

“Israel has effectively lost sovereignty in the northern part of its country because people do not feel safe to return to their homes (…),” Blinken said. He called for an end to the firing and for an agreement to be reached “through diplomatic channels to try to address some of the elements that are at the root of this ongoing insecurity,” citing the need to ensure that “forces are withdrawn” on both sides.

The Secretary of State added that “the United States is strongly committed to developing this diplomacy,” stressing that it was also necessary to achieve a “ceasefire in Gaza.” “Hezbollah has linked its actions to the situation in Gaza and claimed that if there was a ceasefire, it would stop shooting. However, that is not the case, there should be no shooting to begin with. That is a mistake in itself. But it is also a reality,” he said.

By coincidence, the German daily Bild claimed that Israel “could launch an offensive against Lebanon in July”, while other signs seem to indicate that an easing of tensions remains possible.

After his meetings in Washington last week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant assured that the Jewish state does not want to widen the war and prefers a political settlement. On Monday evening, outgoing Lebanese Prime Minister Nagib Mikati suggested in a speech that a “solution” could emerge in the coming days, without elaborating.