After a failed attempt by a group of military personnel to overthrow President Luis Arce, Bolivia is entering a new period of political turbulence amid an economic crisis.
The 2025 presidential election in sight is whetting appetites, while unease reigns within the military institution against a backdrop of popular discontent in the face of rising prices and shortages in a country whose gas and lithium resources nevertheless arouse international interest.
– The army –
Under the command of the head of the army, General Juan José Zuniga, soldiers and armor took up positions briefly on Wednesday in front of the parliament and the presidential palace without serious clashes, except for 14 civilians injured.
General Zuniga, arrested along with 20 other active-duty, retired and civilian military personnel, claimed to have acted on the orders of the president, who had asked him to “stage something to increase his popularity.”
Mr Arce vigorously denied: “How could anyone order or plan a self-coup? (…) He acted on his own.”
The opposition, for its part, denounces a “farce”.
But beyond the suspicions and shadows, “I think there is a deep malaise within the armed forces,” Gustavo Flores-Macias of Cornell University in the United States told AFP.
“But the fact that the coup was contained so quickly proves that, for the moment, civilian power has the upper hand,” he believes.
– Luis Arce –
Supported by his supporters and the international community, the Bolivian president emerges strengthened from what he described as an “attempted coup d’état”.
“In the short term, this will strengthen his government (…) But it will be short-lived,” observes Pablo Calderon, of Northeastern University in London.
With just over a year remaining in his mandate that began in 2020, Mr. Arce faces multiple fronts.
On the social level with the discontent of the powerful trade and freight transport unions due to the economic slowdown. On the political level with a wing of his party, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), which remained loyal to former President Evo Morales (2006-2019) who intends to run again under the banner of the MAS that he created.
This ephemeral uprising “will give a boost” to his very likely candidacy for re-election in 2025, because it was “a demonstration of his authority”, estimates analyst Carlos Cordero, of the Catholic University of Bolivia.
– Evo Morales –
Evo Morales, the first indigenous head of state who ruled for three terms, wants to return to power despite a Constitutional Court decision banning him on the grounds that he had already served more than the number authorized by the constitution. A decision that he contests and considers “political”.
In 2019, while seeking a fourth term, he was forced to resign after protests denouncing electoral fraud. He went into exile for a year under a right-wing interim government before returning with the victory of Luis Arce, his former finance minister.
The two men now engaged in a power struggle have become enemies.
On Wednesday, faced with the military uprising, Evo Morales called on his supporters to mobilize in favor of democracy, without ever mentioning Mr. Arce.
While Luis Arce is now in charge, the former coca leaf farmer continues “to be the moral leader of the Bolivian left and it will be very difficult for Arce to put him in a box or exclude him” from any political negotiation process, believes the Cornell University analyst.
– The economy
With a population of around 12 million, Bolivia is going through a deep crisis as revenues from gas exports, its main source of foreign exchange until 2023, fall due to a lack of investment. .
And fewer exports mean fewer dollars and fewer imports of fuel that the state sells at subsidized prices.
At the same time, the cost of living has increased, strangling low-income households.
What happened on Wednesday “does not improve the economic situation in any way, on the contrary it makes it more difficult (…) uncertainty tends to be bad for business”, says the academic from Northeastern University .
And the failure of the military coup will increase the “sense of crisis” felt by Bolivians, notes Professor Macias-Flores.
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