After very long months where the Ukrainian army had to face shortages of weapons and ammunition, European but especially American military aid is starting to bear fruit. Although still clearly unfavorable to kyiv, the fiery relationship with Russia is rebalancing.
“The delivery of weapons is faster than a few months ago.” In a meeting published on June 23 by the American daily Philadelphia Inquirer, Kyrylo Boudanov, director of Ukrainian military intelligence, recognizes it: Western aid, although still too slow in his eyes, is progressing. “However, there remains a question of volume. Ukraine’s needs are very high,” he tempers.
Finally accepted in April after months of blockage in Congress, American military aid of 61 billion dollars is gradually arriving on the front lines. Announced in March, Czech President Petr Pavel’s initiative to jointly purchase with 18 countries, including Germany, the United Kingdom and France, 800,000 artillery shells from third countries to deliver them to the Ukraine is also taking shape. On Tuesday, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced on the social network X that the first shipments had been delivered.
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Macette Escortet, a recognized independent expert on the Ukrainian conflict, goes so far as to say on A crisis which started in December 2023 with the arrival on the Russian side of an influx of shells from North Korea.
“There was a severe shortage of shells. Our ammunition was severely rationed. It had a big impact on our infantry. The Russians were infiltrating from all sides and it hurt our infantrymen. But now it “There is no longer this hunger for shells and we can work well,” Vasyl, commander of a Ukrainian artillery unit in the Donetsk region, confirmed to the Reuters news agency.
Another sign of change is the official statement from the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces dated June 18, which explains that the Russian window of opportunity is narrowing as Western aid flows. And the Kremlin’s chances of success should further decrease with the imminent arrival of the first F-16 combat aircraft, adds Oleksandr Syrsky in his statement.
In his note of June 24, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an analysis center based in the United States, confirms in any case a clear improvement in the ratio of artillery fire between the Ukrainian army and the Russian forces. It would currently be 5 to 1 in favor of Moscow whereas at the height of the ammunition crisis, it had been 10 to 1 or even 14 to 1 in certain places on the front.
A still perilous situation
If the situation therefore seems to be improving with regard to weapons and especially artillery ammunition, Ukraine continues to face a cruel lack of manpower. For its part, Russia would seek to take advantage of its advantage before all Western equipment arrives in Ukrainian hands.
“Russian troops are striving to increase the intensity and expand the geography of hostilities in order to maximize the exhaustion of our troops, disrupt the formation of reserves and prevent the transition to active offensive actions,” summarizes Oleksandr Syrsky.
However, Ukraine has managed in recent days to launch counterattacks in the Kharkiv region (southeast). Geolocated images verified by the ISW show that Ukraine has regained certain positions in Volchansk (north-east of Kharkiv) and in the small town of Starytsia (north-east of Kharkiv).
Ukrainian forces also carried out major fortification work in the Kharkiv region, establishing new trench lines. Construction is also taking place in the neighboring oblast of Sumy, located a little further west and where experts expected a new Russian offensive. “The mistakes that led to the Russian attack in May (from the Russian border region of Belgorod, editor’s note) are gradually repaired”, explains on X Clément Molin, independent analyst.
>> Read again on this subject: Russia launches ground offensive in Kharkiv region et By approaching Kharkiv, the Russian army pushes kyiv to expand the front
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Further east, in the oblasts of Lugansk and Donetsk, Russian troops continue their slow erosion. Attacks continue along the Svatove-Kremina line (Lugansk oblast), an important supply route. Kremlin forces are also gaining ground near the town of Kupiansk, where 2 km2 have been conquered.
Further south, in Chassiv Yar, one of the last strongholds of Donetsk Oblast, no changes have been reported for the moment, but the future of the city remains compromised. Asked whether Ukraine could resist Russian forces in this area, Kyrylo Budanov deflects: “I will refrain from answering,” he simply explains.
Still possessing superior firepower and more soldiers, Moscow therefore still seems to have the upper hand for the moment. But the influx of Western arms and munitions is already changing the situation. The loss ratio is increasing for the Kremlin. “For Russia, more and more losses are needed to make the same gains,” summarizes Macette Escortet on X. A reality which could accelerate while the majority of Western equipment promised to Ukraine has not yet arrived on the front.
Tristan Duke
