While Macron wants “essential clarification”, some denounce a calculated and dangerous transfer of power to the National Rally.
Together (presidential majority), New Popular Front (NFP), and National Rally (RN) are in the middle of the campaign. Three alliances and so many possibilities. Decryption of two possible scenarios.
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Absolute majority
In this scenario, one of the three parties would hold the majority. That is to say that at least 289 of its deputies will be elected, out of a total of 577. The much-speculated Prime Minister would a priori come from the winning party. “This is the least likely scenario if we look at the polls”, which are too disparate, explains Thomas Thévenoud to BFMTV.
Cohabitation with a relative majority
This would be a minority government. In reality, Macron could, constitutionally speaking, choose whoever he wants as Prime Minister. But while overthrowing a Prime Minister in a relative majority situation has never been historically feasible, if the government is in a minority, then it will be easy. In other words, if Ensemble does not win the legislative elections, although on paper a Prime Minister of this rank is still conceivable, in reality he will not last long and will be overthrown by the opposition. A member of another party would take his place. Which means that Macron will have to collaborate with the partisan of an opposing camp.
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In this case, certain lines of action will be difficult to trace. In the past, “the place of France was a consensus”, analyzes Thomas Thévenoud again with our colleagues at BFMTV. But that is no longer the case. The national position defended tooth and nail by Macron regarding the major current conflicts – support for Ukraine and recognition of the Palestinian state – is not shared by everyone.
”Relative majority, impossibility of a coalition, new dissolution possible in a year”, the cocktail is “explosive”, concludes Thomas Thévenoud.
