Nearly three years after having overthrown and imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, suspended public freedoms, killed or imprisoned thousands of opponents, the Burmese generals are not doing well on the ground they are supposed to. best mastered: war. Since October 2023, defeats have continued in the face of multiple ethnic guerrillas.
Karen, Shan, Arakan rebellions, etc., have always made life difficult for the central power since independence in 1948. Equipped with a new legitimacy in the face of the putschists, the guerrillas also coordinate with the Defense Forces of the people, the “opposition army”, who now claim 60,000 soldiers, often young people from the majority Bama ethnic group who have gone into hiding.
Result: the regular army retreated almost everywhere. This was first the case in the East, in Shan State, on the Chinese border; then, in the South-East, where the junta lost the town of Myawaddy in April, an essential commercial crossroads with neighboring Thailand.
The generals’ beach
This time, it is in the West, where the Arakan Army has launched a major offensive, that the generals are taking a slap. The rebels besiege the town of Ngapali. And they took control of Thandwe, the tourist jewel renowned throughout the region for its fine sandy beaches and idyllic scenery. The regular army would only hold the airport located several kilometers away.
If it is confirmed, the defeat for the junta is twofold, military and symbolic. Because Thandwe was a bit of a chic beach for the laced men who took over Burma. Many of the hotels in Ngapali and Thandwe belong to the army, a hydra which has interests in many sectors, from precious stones to tourism, including tobacco.
The Arakan Army’s next objective is clear: the major city of Sittwe, which would be the first regional capital to fall to rebels.
