It's the final stretch for the two main candidates in the American presidential election: Kamala Harris (Democrats) and Donald Trump (Republicans). There are only a few days left to convince the approximately 41 million Americans called to the polls. American citizens who have already made up their minds and want to weigh in as soon as possible have already had the opportunity to vote early. But three days before the solemn vote, it is very difficult to know who, Joe Biden's vice-president or the former president, will win.
The specialized site FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates the various surveys carried out in the United States, always gives a slight lead to the current vice-president, Kamala Harris. She leads national polls with 48% of the projected vote, compared to 46.8% for Donald Trump.
Summary of national polls for the duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
Credit: Screenshot projects.fivethirtyeight.com
The New York Times, this November 2, maintains this short lead for Kamala Harris (49% against 48% for Donald Trump). The curves are closer than ever but they do not intersect at the moment. The last time Donald Trump was ahead in the polls was this summer. Kamala Harris took over at the beginning of August 2024 and has never given up this place as fragile favorite since.
The forecast for the “New York Times”, November 2, 2024
Credit: NYT
As a reminder, most polling institutes place Kamala Harris in the lead, but often only narrowly. The vice-president's lead has gradually reduced in recent weeks, with a decline of 0.1 point since Monday October 28, one week before the election. It reached up to 3.7 points at the end of August, before stabilizing between 2.5 and 3 points throughout the month of September. Since mid-October, it has been decreasing little by little, now standing at only 1.4 points.
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