A climate of crisis has newly established between Mali and Algeria, two countries whose relations are now marked by hostility. The latest episode, the mobilization of Algerian air defense, testifies to the seriousness of the situation of an escalation towards open conflict.
Historically, Mali and Algeria have had problematic relations, influenced by security and political issues. Algeria, with an attempt at regional influence, has often exercised tacit authority over its southern neighbor, while Mali, with its volatile security situation, has regularly felt this pressure. This dynamic has recently been complicated by Malian military operations around Tinzaouatène, aimed at neutralizing armed terrorist groups such as the CSP-JNIM.
Faced with this terrorist threat, the Malian authorities intensified their military efforts, which, de facto, alarmed Algiers. In response, Algeria has strengthened its military presence on the border, specifically with the deployment of Pantsir S-1 air defense systems to ward off any violation of its airspace. These systems are renowned for their effectiveness in intercepting small and medium-sized aerial targets, thus marking a very clear defensive posture. However, beyond these maneuvers, it is obvious that this asymmetrical logistical deployment between the two countries reveals a strong distrust, witness to a significantly deteriorated relationship.
Observers on the ground stress that regional security could be seriously affected if tensions are not quickly defused. Malian civil society, as well as geopolitical experts, have expressed their wish to see the emergence of a security coalition including not only the AES countries (Mali, Burkina and Niger), but also Libya. The idea would be to initiate reinforced military cooperation to contain Algeria, which they perceive as an actor seeking to establish itself as the dominant power in the region.
At the heart of this crisis is the movement of the famous convoy of the Malian Armed Forces (FAMas) towards Tinzaouatène. A flood of disinformation, often relayed by sources close to terrorist groups, surrounds this strategic movement. Fabricated images and sensational information circulate widely, creating media confusion which undermines the credibility of the media in the region. Despite this informational cacophony, Malian officials persist in saying that their intervention aims exclusively to secure the borders against terrorist incursions, thus supporting the sovereign right to manage their own territory. However, on the ground, the echo of the drums of war is heard more and more clearly.
