African migrations, both “internal” and “external” continue to experience persistent upward pressure. Low economic opportunities, endemic poverty, demographic dynamics and conflict contexts, combined with the effects of climate change, are the main causes.
Indeed, although sub-Saharan Africa has experienced sustained economic growth since the beginning of the century, the region continues to have the lowest average per capita incomes in the world. Today, it is estimated that nearly 35% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa lives below the poverty line, creating pressure on household members to meet basic needs.
Moreover, Africa continues to experience greater population growth than any other region in the world. Indeed, the African population is expected to double, from 1.2 billion to 2.5 billion inhabitants in 2050, while 10 to 12 million young Africans are expected to join the active population each year, creating new tensions on the labor markets. work of the continent.
Finally, unresolved conflicts in the region continue to generate significant numbers of forcibly displaced populations. In addition, the return to authoritarian and autocratic regimes has caused a wave of displacement. As an illustration, the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in 2023 led to 6 million additional cross-border movements. This is in addition to population movements generated by conflicts in South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Central African Republic and Somalia, among others.
In this perspective, climate change adds to the challenges cited to the extent that this phenomenon has led, so far, to a 34% reduction in agricultural productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa since 1960, contributing, today, to a climate of unprecedented food insecurity within of the region.
According to World Bank forecasts, climate changeand implied the intensification of floods and droughts, will be at the origin of nearly 10% of all “cross-border” migrations in Africa by 2050.
However, the effects of climate change will mainly result in an increase in so-called “internal” migration, that is to say within countries, most often from rural areas to urban areas: a well-known phenomenon. by the region in recent years.
As sustainable rural livelihoods (agricultural crops, food production systems, water resources) become increasingly precarious due to global warming and natural disasters, a growing share of migrants could be forced to undergo these “internal” displacements Permanently.
Several recent examples tend to confirm this scenario:
In Somaliaan unprecedented drought has displaced nearly 1.1 million people, a record for the country, while competition for reduced resources in rural areas has worsened drought-related precariousness.
In Madagascarseveral storms reduced the absorptive capacity of land and worsened food insecurity, leading to more than 290,000 internal displacements, the highest figure ever recorded for the country.
In Burundi, Last year, torrential rains and floods linked in particular to the overflowing of Lake Tanganyika led to the displacement of several tens of thousands of people and reduced the means of subsistence of more than 10% of the population, the vast majority of whom are rural.
Now, Climate mobility scenarios estimate that nearly 5% of Africa’s population could move due to the effects of climate change by 2050compared to 1.5% today.
Although regional economic communities (RECs) play an increasing role in dismantling barriers to the movement of people, the question of inter- and intra-continental migration remains at the heart of concerns. This is all the more true as climate mobility reinforces interest in overhauling migration policy.
In this perspective, migrations attributable to climate change must be linked to its causes and greenhouse gas emissions (GES). Financing the “loss and damage” fund, acquired by the impacted countries during COP28, is essential, due to the investments necessary to deal with the effects of climate change (extreme droughts and floods, rise in coastal waters, forest fires). , temperature variations) and implement adaptation and support programs for population resilience.
