[STRICTEMENT PERSONNEL] “So much the worse for the South…”

« It’s time to shift to a wartime mindset… » It seems to me that this virile statement from Mr. Mark Rutte aroused neither the echo nor the emotion, anything less than global, that it deserved. Mr. Rutte is not just anyone, however, and NATO, for its part, is not just anyone. Dutch Prime Minister for fourteen years in a row, which is no small feat, Mr. Rutte has inherited, since last October, the title of Secretary General of NATO, which, at least on paper, makes him a man of primary importance. NATO, it must be remembered, is this political-military alliance as impressive as it is genetically shaky which brings together, under the leadership and umbrella of the greatest power in the world, thirty-one states, some of them formerly great themselves, others just average, the last definitely tiny. Allies, protégés, vassals or simple satellites? It depends.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which, as everyone knows, extends from the Black Sea to the Pacific Ocean, was founded in 1949 to confront, if necessary, the bloc of East, creation and creature of the USSR, which then constituted a threat to the fragile peace of the world. The Eastern Bloc no longer exists. The USSR is just a memory. NATO remains.

The strong argument of the reference to “Munich”

When Russia, almost three years ago, invaded Ukraine, whose links with Muscovy go back a thousand years and its very young independence a quarter of a century ago, it was not only the border or neighboring countries of the field of battle who were worried, moved and mobilized in favor of the attacked. Their geographical proximity to the aggressor and the memories left to them, from Catherine the Great to Joseph Vissarionovitch, alias Stalin, little father and executioner of his people, tsarist imperialism then the Soviet yoke explain this well enough. NATO, too, under the leadership of the United States, claimed to defeat Vladimir Putin's Russia, of which the least we can say is that in this case, it has no more respected, externally, international law than it guarantees its own nationals the enjoyment of the most basic freedoms. To be honest, we will still recall that, not content with trimming the claws of the Russian bear, the West, in other words the United States, had multiplied provocations, vexations and humiliations with regard to this rival, to its eyes weakened, even dejected, who had dared for so long to threaten, contest and dispute the hegemony which was rightfully his.

The strong argument invoked in the early days of the conflict by the friendly countries and supporters of Ukraine was essentially the reference to “Munich” and, therefore, to the cowardice or blindness of the democracies which had left, without lifting the small finger, Hitler reoccupies the Rhineland, then carves up Czechoslovakia then annexes Austria then invades Poland. It is perfectly true that, failing to have arrested the Nazi dictator when his means did not match his ambitions, instead of carrying out in 1935 the very simple police operation which would have nipped the III^e Reich, it was only at the exorbitant cost of four years of a war that set the world ablaze, of fifty million deaths and the control of communism over half of Europe, that hostilities ceased and, under under the aegis of the victors and the UN, the era of peace, justice and happiness that we have known since 1945 began.

Clouds are gathering on all horizons

The blindness, the “sleepwalking” of the leaders before the First World War had ultimately caused only twenty million victims, a very modest price, and opened the era of the decline of Europe, which had not stolen. The Ukrainian war, so far, has left only a million dead and wounded and, militarily speaking, has not spilled over, in the narrow sensebeyond the borders of the two adversaries in question. But you would have to be as blind as the politicians of 1914, as stupid as the leaders of the interwar period, as sheepish and as biased as our media not to notice that clouds are accumulating on all horizons and that the decisions, declarations and commitments made by officials as irresponsible as Mr. Rutte, Mr. Biden or Mr. Macron can only transform a regional conflict into an international confrontation. We are sliding inexorably down the slope that led to the first two world wars, made what we thought unthinkable inevitable and made an absurd, crazy and suicidal possibility into a fatality. The shadow of a war more murderous and more barbaric than the previous ones extends over the world and the speech of Mr. Rutte, a simple puppet in a theater where he believes he is an actor, is indicative of an evolution which is accelerating .

We have slipped towards the more dangerous role of co-belligerents…

At first simple spectators of a war as exotic and as comfortable to follow on television as any western or the wars of Sudan, Vietnam or Korea, we have become the financiers and suppliers of weapons of Ukraine, to the detriment of our economy and our own defense, then, gradually, by the supply of our most modern equipment and the authorization given to Ukraine to retaliate against Russia, a nuclear power, on its territory , we have slipped towards the more dangerous role of cobelligerents, in potential, in intention. And, tomorrow, in fact?

Faced with the information, images and fears reaching us today from Ukraine, the threats that are becoming clearer on Taiwan and the temptation that visibly torments European, American and Chinese leaders to contribute to the third (and final?) outburst. of madness in the world, the words of the beautiful and lucid song by Nino Ferrer have been haunting me lately: “ One day or another/There will have to be war/We know it well/We don't like it/But we don't know what to do/We say: it's destiny/Too bad for South/It was good though… »

Mr. Rutte's comments reflect a climate disruption which is not, in this case, meteorological. They anticipate, they perhaps precipitate the danger that their author claims to ward off. So, so much the worse for the East, the West, the North and the South?