Michel Barnier triggered article 49.3 of the Constitution on the Social Security financing bill, this Monday, December 2.
In the process, the RN and France insoumise, on behalf of the NFP, tabled motions of censure.
Story of a day full of twists and turns which could seal the fate of the Barnier government, less than three months after its appointment.
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Budget 2025: the moment of truth for Michel Barnier
For a few hours, we believed that the long-awaited scenario would not take place. In the middle of the day, Prime Minister Michel Barnier indicated in a press release that he agreed to make a new gesture towards the National Rally by committing “so that there is no delisting of medicines in 2025 in application of the Social Security financing bill”. Perhaps then, Marine Le Pen's group had obtained enough guarantees not to vote for censure in the event of 49.3 being triggered. Ultimately no…
Story of a day of high tension in the National Assembly, perhaps the antepenultimate of this Barnier government, which ended up ending as planned.
Michel Barnier: “I hold my government responsible”
Shortly after 3:30 p.m., just a few minutes after leaving Matignon, the Prime Minister went up to the podium of the National Assembly. What he is going to announce is not a surprise: he has informed his troops of his intention to trigger article 49.3 of the Constitution.
“On the basis of article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution, I hold my government responsible for the entire Social Security financing bill for 2025”he blurted. “And I do this by calling for the responsibility of each of the representatives of the Nation that you are, convinced that our common mission (…) is to serve France and the French”he adds, knowing that his statement exposes him to a motion of censure.
Not five minutes passed before La France insoumise announced the filing. Prime Minister Michel Barnier “this Wednesday will have both dishonor and censure”declares the head of the Insoumis deputies Mathilde Panot to the press in the Quatre Colonnes room. The socialist, environmentalist and communist groups confirm that they will follow their ally to vote in favor of the text. But at that time, the National Rally did not confirm or deny the vote on the motion of censure tabled by the left.
Marine Le Pen: “We will vote for (the) censorships”
Before the opening of the session, Marine Le Pen had put further pressure on the government. The victory on the delisting of medicines was not enough in her eyes; the MP conditions the censorship on a step back on the deindexation of pensions. “It’s up to the government to accept it or not to accept it.”
For Michel Barnier, it's nothing. “I reached the end of the dialogue with all the political groups”he warned during his speech. Then the RN group quickly assures on “this text, like the government, deserves censorship”. Then to journalists, the former presidential candidate announced that the RN would table its own motion of censure and vote for that of the left. “Wherever these motions of censure come from, whether there is one or several, we will vote for these censures, and first of all ours”she assures.
This declaration marks the announced end of Michel Barnier's government. Wednesday, December 4, if the votes of the RN deputies are added to those of the NFP deputies, the motion of censure will be adopted since it will total more than 315 votes, more than the necessary absolute majority, set at 289.
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Motion of censure against Michel Barnier: is it likely to be adopted? We do the calculations
Of course, there still remains a chance that the expected scenario will be reversed, particularly if Michel Barnier continues to negotiate and discuss with the extreme right and chooses to provide it with guarantees, particularly on other texts or future bills. The RN can also choose to vote only on its motion of censure and not that of the left, otherwise the two texts would not obtain the absolute majorities necessary for their adoptions.
A historic first?
This Monday, December 2, the Barnier government still seems closer to the end than the beginning of its history, less than three months after its appointment. If the motion of censure is adopted, he will have to resign. And it will then go down in history since never under the Fifth Republic was a motion of censure adopted after the use of article 49.3.
