President Volodymyr Zelensky has estimated that at least 200,000 European troops should be deployed to guarantee Ukraine’s security in the event of a truce with Russia.
A number to be taken with a pinch of salt, as Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRIS, explains to us.
Follow the full coverage
Ukraine: almost three years of war
“It’s a minimum. Otherwise it’s nothing.” After several months of behind-the-scenes discussions between kyiv and its allies, Volodymyr Zelensky, for the first time, revealed the contingent he wants to see installed in his country to maintain peace in the event of an agreement with the Russia: 200,000 troops, which would be deployed by the Europeans. An achievable wish? The point of view of Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRIS, former French ambassador to Moscow and author of Geopolitics of Russia (Éditions Eyrolles).
Is the number put forward by Volodymyr Zelensky relevant in view of Europe’s military capabilities?
No. But he is asking this, because at the time of the Istanbul agreements in 2022, the Russians had wanted the strength of the Ukrainian army, in the event of peace, to be reduced to 50,000 men. It would therefore be unable to defend itself in the event of a violation of an agreement. In such a context, kyiv is requesting significant personnel to compensate for the reduction in its personnel requested by Moscow. It’s unrealistic, but it’s normal for him to raise the stakes.
For Zelensky, this is a concession
Jean de Gliniasty
Should we distinguish European troops from those of NATO?
Yes, this is a possible compromise position. Indeed, the Russians do not want Ukraine to have links with NATO. They have been saying it for 20 years, it is their only real and radical red line. This was also cleared at the time of the Istanbul Accords. Except that if we don’t allow NATO members on Ukrainian soil, we won’t put anyone there anymore.
-For Zelensky, this is already a concession. These will not be NATO troops, but perhaps from NATO member states. The Russians insisted on having soldiers from Security Council member countries in Ukraine. Including, therefore, China and Russia. This was a sticking point: kyiv did not want troops from Russia, which obviously could have violated the agreement and blocked any reaction from the international community thanks to its seat as a permanent member within the Council.
-
Read also
Ukraine: Zelensky says he discussed with Macron a possible “deployment of foreign contingents”
What place could France occupy in the event of a sending of troops?
In a context of agreement, there would be “guardians” and French troops would be part of this peacekeeping. From then on, the question of numbers would no longer arise in the same way, there would be a symbolic side. And it wouldn’t be worth it to go up to 200,000 men.
Can we make peace without sending troops?
Ukraine needs very strong guarantees. Her two previous experiences left her burned. This means security guarantees, treaties, clauses triggering the intervention of allies… We need troops on the ground. The guarantees involve, in my opinion, Blue or White Helmets, troops physically present. In addition, it is necessary to be able to document potential violations of an agreement. You need people on site to see who is bombing who. The Russians are currently refusing NATO members, but they are the only “serious” armies. This was discussed during a possible agreement. But we are far from it.
