This also leads to a strengthening of far-right parties in Europe. “This allows far-right parties to say: ‘you see, we are being invaded by immigrants’. Obviously, they will forget to say that all of this is instrumental because that would not help their narrative. And they will say that it is Europe’s fault. It’s a double win for Russia and Belarus“, says Tanguy Struye from Swielande.
Poland authorizes itself to shoot migrants at its borders: “They justify their actions by Russia’s exploitation of migrants”
This strategy is not new and has already been implemented in different regions of the world, specifies the professor. By Russia itself but also by Turkey, which planned to let Syrian refugees through if Europe did not help it financially. But it also points to a management problem on the part of the European Union. “To guarantee the security of our borders, we have done ‘outsourcing’, asking countries, such as Egypt, to take control. From the moment we no longer control the issue of immigration and refugees, we give a lot of power to countries that are anything but democracies.” and who can thus exploit immigration.
For Poland, the reason for this “migratory threat” is clear. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko wants revenge for the European sanctions that the country has suffered since his controversial re-election in 2020. A feeling of animosity exacerbated by his displayed complicity with Russian President Vladimir Putin who is increasing his threats against Europe for his support for Ukraine. However, according to Tanguy Struye from Swielande, there is no “necessarily a direct consultation“between Lukashenko and Putin.”But it’s clear that it suits both the Russians and Belarus to make European borders as unstable as possible..
On the border between Poland and Belarus, migrants die alone in the middle of the woods: “The forest looks easy but it can kill”
6,000 soldiers deployed at the border
“Our top priority is to stop this artificially created migration route and not allow people to cross the border illegally. We are doing our best to protect our borders.” Polish Deputy Interior Minister Maciej Duszczyk said at a press conference. Alongside border guards, nearly 6,000 soldiers have been deployed to secure the border and 11,000 more could be sent. Colonel Mariusz Ochalski recalls that these operations do not only protect Polish territory. “It is also the border of the European Union and NATO territory. From this point of view, our military activity is not only a vital element in Poland’s preparation for any activity coming from the East, but also in the defense of European countries and in the preparation for defense of the countries of NATO.”
In October 2024, after the announcement of the Polish government’s migration strategy, the European Council affirmed that it could not “be tolerated that Russia and Belarus, or any other country, hijack our values, including the right to asylum, and undermine our democracies.” The Council also expressed “its solidarity with Poland and with the Member States facing these challenges” and that “exceptional situations call for appropriate measures.” But Tanguy Struye from Swielande recalls that at the start of this crisis, “the Poles were angry and felt that European aid was really lax compared to this threat of immigration“.
-The eastern shield to regulate the situation?
In May 2024, the Polish Ministry of Defense presented a project of “oriental shield” in order to build “a secure border, including a system of fortifications, as well as land and environmental planning decisions that will make this border impossible for a potential enemy to cross“. But this project, still under development, is not designed to deal with the problem of migration, specifies Warsaw. But for the professor of international relations, the devices developed for this abacus will participate in a complementary way to the containment of the problem.
Poland will build an eastern “shield” on its Russian and Belarusian borders: “The largest reinforcement operation since 1945”
The European Union facing hybrid warfare
For Tanguy Struye from Swielande, the European Union is not prepared to face a hybrid war. “We do not invest enough in our defenses, we do not have a strategy and we do not have a coherent policy in general. Concerning the issues of refugees and migration, we have an extremely divided policy with, for example, outsourcing. In the end, our entire migration policy should be completely reviewed at European level.“
The European Union singled out for its policy of “deadly deterrence” in matters of immigration and asylum
A complex situation to which demographic, economic, social and security issues are added. “But Europe, until now, has not done a convincing job. There is a real lack of coordination and coherence in our immigration and refugee policy. Which means that we are obviously vulnerablee,” he concludes.
