Yesterday afternoon I was thinking that maybe Trump was a traditional politician after all. At least on the question of customs duties.
Since November, he had sworn to strike hard from the first minutes of his presidency. But yesterday morning we learned that he wanted… to consult before imposing customs duties.
In the short term, “federal agencies” would receive the mandate, we learned from the Wall Street Journalto “assess U.S. trade relations with China and its continental neighbors.”
In short, we got away with it! “For now” at least, Justin Trudeau told journalists.
North spared
The north seemed spared from untimely (and unjustified) Trumpist decisions. The real tough decisions were reserved for the South.
- Forced repatriation from the Panama Canal (which could trigger an armed confrontation).
- State of emergency at the southern border, where the army will be dispatched, in order to stop an alleged “invasion” in progress.
Perhaps the efforts of our elected officials and concerned business people had this first beneficial effect?
Danielle Smith, the Alberta Prime Minister, live from Washington, was delighted in the afternoon that the Dominion and its hydrocarbons were spared. On time to study the matter in more depth. We appreciate the implicit recognition that this is a complex and sensitive issue with serious implications for American and Canadian workers, businesses and consumers, given the integration of our markets as well as our essential partnership in terms of energy and security. »
Nightmare
Except that yesterday evening, by signing an orgy of decrees, Trump made it clear that the tariffs were coming soon. From February 1, it will be 25%.
-We will therefore only be spared for a few days. Mrs. Smith had taken her wishes for reality.
François Legault said it well: the Trumpian tariff threat could fall on us “in a week, in a month”, who knows?, given the unpredictability of the 47th US president, we had to continue to prepare.
From tomorrow, certain messages will have to be hammered out. Like this somewhat lyrical ad from Ontario “exemplary partner” of the United States, broadcast on CNN yesterday, between two highlights of this particular day, which gave the impression of entering a new uncertain era .
It will be necessary to make it clear that these tariffs are also an evil that the United States is inflicting on itself. We cannot, like Trump, promise to reduce inflation while imposing universal customs duties.
Come to think of it, perhaps there is an upside to this situation. Tariffs on our exports will hit a large portion of the U.S. economy hard. And quickly. As Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer put it well last week: it will be a “nightmare” for the auto industry as parts often cross the border multiple times.
Rather than waiting for an agency’s assessments, rather than trying to negotiate, Quebecers and Canadians will be able to show the United States the deleterious effects of these decisions. And faced with these, the Trump administration will perhaps decide to give up. Like they did with aluminum tariffs in 2018. Let’s hope.