The classics graduate managed to open the game on the explosive issue of pension reform. Avoiding the sensitive term “suspension” of the 2023 reform, the new Prime Minister chose that of discussion “without totem or taboo” within the framework of a three-month “conclave” bringing together the social partners.
He benefits from a “firing window” before a new stage in the timetable of extending the starting age to 63 years. But warning that, in the absence of agreement, the reform adopted in 2023 will continue to apply.
Socialists divided
His general policy declaration to Parliament on January 14 reassured his supporters on the right and in the center, while sowing confusion among the socialists, divided on the advisability of voting for censure. The latter demand the opening of a debate on the law in the event of failure of the social partners.
Which would amount to a de facto challenge to the law in a few months. Cleverly, Matignon evades by refusing the hypothesis of a failure of the social partners.
The RN delays
A balancing act under the gaze of a political class which is betting on the date of the artist’s fall. Even if the leaders of the National Rally do not plan to vote for censorship in the short term.
Two perilous obstacles
Before that, François Bayrou and his ministers must succeed in overcoming two perilous obstacles: having Parliament adopt a 2025 finance law that has been stalled since censorship, as well as a new Social Security financing bill, the defended text. by the Barnier government which led to its fall last December.
All of this necessarily means significant savings, under the critical eye of the financial markets as the cost of debt increases with the rise in 10-year interest rates.
30 billion savings
The Minister of Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin, tried to reassure by evoking a “historic effort” of savings of “more than 30 billion” planned by the budget in preparation. Associated with additional revenues of 21 billion, which will involve large companies and the wealthiest taxpayers.
A choice in line with that of Michel Barnier, even if the terms change. It remains to be seen where these savings will be found by a government which still cannot rely on a majority.
