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A major political headache
The formation of Nawaf Salam’s government promises to be one of the most complex political challenges in years. Internal divisions within confessional blocs exacerbate tensions and complicate negotiations. According to Al Akhbar (January 14, 2025), Amal and Hezbollah insist on retaining key portfolios, notably Finance, while factions of the Free Patriotic Movement display divergent positions on support for Salam.
Amal and Hezbollah: a seemingly united position
Despite their long-standing alliance, Amal and Hezbollah are not fully aligned on their strategy. If Nabih Berri denounced Salam as a “candidate imposed by foreigners”, certain Amal executives are considering a more pragmatic approach to avoid a prolonged impasse. Hezbollah, for its part, remains firm in its opposition to any reform perceived as a threat to community balance.
The fractures within the Free Patriotic Current
The Free Patriotic Movement (CPL), Hezbollah’s traditional ally, is also divided. A part of the CPL deputies supports Salam to meet the expectations of international partners, while another wing fears that this appointment will further marginalize Maronite interests. These differences weaken the ability of the CPL to play a mediating role in the negotiations.
The Lebanese Forces and the Future Movement: a reformist approach
The Lebanese Forces and the Future Movement expressed conditional support for Salam. According to Al Nahar (January 14, 2025), these blocs hope that his appointment will promote a renewal of governance. However, their influence remains limited in the face of the Shiite coalition and the internal divisions of the Christian blocs.
The impact on negotiations
These internal divisions slow down the formation of the government, delaying the implementation of economic and social reforms. Salam will have to find a balance between the demands of parliamentary blocs and those of international partners, while meeting the expectations of citizens.
A game of confessional and political balances
The distribution of ministerial portfolios, particularly Finance, Energy and Interior, will be crucial to ease tensions. According to Al Joumhouriyat (January 14, 2025), Salam will have to deal with a system based on mīthāqīyah, while trying to introduce technocrats to guarantee the credibility of his government.
A prolonged political paralysis?
The risk of a prolonged political impasse remains high. While Salam tries to form a balanced cabinet, sectarian resistance and games of interests threaten to paralyze the process. This situation could delay the implementation of essential economic reforms, further worsening the social and economic crisis.
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