Polymarket: the investor barometer for January 20
Bitcoin, Dogecoin, politiFi tokens or even tokens linked to AI agents, speculation is intensifying on those who could ride the wave of this event. As during the presidential election of November 6, investors are turning to Polymarket, a platform specializing in predictive bets linked to major themes.
For January 20, Polymarket once again establishes itself as a key tool. To the question “What will Trump say during inauguration speech?” “, bettors have already placed $683,258 on the possibility that Trump will mention Bitcoin, with a probability of 21%.
Dogecoin is not left out, with $334,343 staked on the assumption that it is also cited by the president. In addition to cryptocurrencies, other topics attract the attention of punters: America First, Middle Class, Border, Illegal Immigrationor even Drill Baby Drill. However, politiFi tokens and those linked to AI agents are absent from the major themes.
To go further: Trump memes explode as inauguration approaches
A platform in decline
Despite its role as a reference, Polymarket seems to be losing its splendor. Data from Dune Analytics shows a marked decline in betting volumes, number of active traders, open interest and new registrations.
In November 2024, daily open interest peaked at $455 million. Today, that figure is down to $113 million. The number of new registrants also reflects this decline: from 340,000 in November, it fell to 272,000 in December, and only 140,000 for this month of January.
This drop in activity is largely explained by the tightening of regulations. In Singapore, the Gambling Regulatory Authority has officially blocked access to Polymarket. In France, the National Gaming Authority (ANJ) took a similar measure as early as November 2024. Separately, the CFTC issued a subpoena to Coinbase, requesting information on accounts linked to Polymarket, illustrating intensifying regulatory pressures .
Despite these difficulties, Polymarket remains an essential tool for investors seeking to anticipate major trends.
Moral of the story: betting on the future is good, except when the law works against you!
Disclaimer
Disclaimer: In accordance with The Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to providing unbiased and transparent information. This article aims to provide accurate and relevant information. However, we encourage readers to verify the facts on their own and consult a professional before making any decision based on this content.
