After 15 months of intense fighting, Israel appears close to an agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza. Negotiations include the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. But many obstacles remain on the path to peace…
As the conflict between Israel and Palestinian armed groups in Gaza enters its 16th month, a glimmer of hope appears to be on the horizon. According to several Israeli and international officials, negotiations to reach a ceasefire agreement are on track, with “significant progress” recorded in recent days.
A ceasefire which would be accompanied by the release of Israeli soldiers and civilians detained by Hamas, a highly sensitive issue in Israel. “We are working hard to secure the return of our hostages. This is an absolute priority,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stressed during a press briefing.
Qatar, key mediator in the negotiations
A small Gulf emirate, Qatar plays a central role as mediator in these peace talks. Doha indeed maintains good relations with both Israel and Hamas, considered a terrorist organization by the Jewish state. According to a diplomatic source, “technical discussions” are continuing in Qatar to finalize the details of an agreement.
The precise content of the negotiations remains secret, but it would include measures to ease the blockade imposed by Israel on Gaza since 2007, in exchange for a commitment from Hamas to stop rocket fire and release Israeli hostages. An American envoy would also actively participate in the discussions.
A still fragile truce
Despite these encouraging developments, the situation on the ground remains very precarious. In recent days, the Israeli army has lost another 5 soldiers in fighting in northern Gaza, bringing the death toll to 408 soldiers since the start of its offensive in October 2023.
On the Palestinian side, at least 19 people have died in the Gaza Strip in the last 24 hours, bringing the total Palestinian victims to more than 46,000 dead and 100,000 injured in 15 months of war, a terrible toll.
“Every day brings its share of death and destruction. People burn their trash to cook what little food they have. It’s hell in Gaza, especially with winter coming”
– Gaza resident reached by telephone
Political divisions in Israel
In Israel itself, the possibility of an agreement arouses heated controversy. While most Israelis aspire to peace, some like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (far-right) are opposed to any concessions.
“We will not participate in a surrender agreement that would include the release of hyper-terrorists, an end to the war, and the loss of what was gained at the cost of much bloodshed”
– Bezalel Smotrich, Israeli Finance Minister, on X (ex-Twitter)
Conversely, peace NGOs and soldiers who have lost loved ones are calling on the government to seize this “historic opportunity” to put an end to the cycle of violence. The road to an agreement therefore still promises to be strewn with pitfalls, as the positions are so clear-cut on both sides.
Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, what impact for Gaza?
Meanwhile, in accordance with a plan negotiated under international auspices, Israel has begun its withdrawal from southern Lebanon, where it has been fighting Hezbollah since June 2023. The Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers are to take control of the zone after a complete Israeli withdrawal planned for January 26, 2025.
Some see it as a model for Gaza: Israeli withdrawal in exchange for security guarantees and control from the Palestinian Authority, supported by an international force. But the comparison has its limits, as the situation in Gaza seems inextricable after so many months of war and suffering.
The international community mobilized
Faced with the scale of the humanitarian crisis, the international community is trying to mobilize. This Wednesday, Norway will host a meeting of an international alliance to promote a two-state solution, Israeli and Palestinian. A wishful thinking for many, while on the ground, the logic of war still prevails.
The days and weeks to come will therefore be crucial to know if the “window of opportunity” mentioned by international diplomacy can lead to a real peace process, or if Gaza and Israel are condemned to continue their descent into hell. A ceasefire, even if fragile, would in any case represent immense hope for the millions of civilians caught in this never-ending conflict.
