In detail, French greenhouse gas emissions even increased by 0.5% in the third quarter year-on-year, after a drop of 5% and 2.2% during the first two quarters of 2024. A first in three years: the last jump in emissions was so far in 2021, in a context of an abrupt restart of activity after the health crisis linked to Covid-19.
Less sustained drop in emissions in industry
A good student, the industry continues to reduce its direct greenhouse gas emissions, with a decline of 1.3% in the third quarter. This decline, however, slowed down over the period: the drop in emissions from French factories was twice as significant in the previous quarter, at 2.8%. In total, the industry emitted 46 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) over the first nine months of the year. It has thus spent almost 70% of its annual carbon budget set by SNBC-2, according to adjusted figures for 2019.
Emissions from electrical energy production are also being reduced, thanks to “less use of fossil fuels in electricity production, with a share falling from 14% in the third quarter of 2023 to 6% for this third quarter of 2024” , specifies the report.
Conversely, the transport sector – the largest emitter in France – has recorded increasing emissions in recent months. This increase is mainly driven by an increase in road traffic emissions (+1.1% over the quarter). The sector has already spent almost all of its annual carbon budget set by SNBC-2.
Worst performer in the third quarter, the building recorded an inflation of its direct emissions of 12%. This increase comes from “the increase in emissions associated with the heating of residential and tertiary buildings in September 2024,” points out Citepa.
Carbon neutrality objective in 2050
The National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) sets a carbon neutrality objective for France by 2050. To achieve its target, this roadmap assigns, sector by sector, annual greenhouse gas emissions targets. not to be exceeded. These non-binding “carbon budgets” are lowered every five years.
According to the roadmap currently in force (the SNBC-2 revised in 2019), French factories must reach 53 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030, a reduction of a third of their emissions compared to 2015. To achieve this objective, the industry must therefore deflate its emissions by 1.9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year over the period on average.
As an incentive, Emmanuel Macron had promised, in 2022, to allocate 5 billion euros in subsidies to the 50 highest-emitting industrial sites, on condition of following a plan to reduce their emissions by almost half between 2015 and 2030. Two years later, a large majority of cement manufacturers, steelmakers, chemists and petrochemists claimed to have started construction sites. Over the first nine months of 2024, the industry emitted the equivalent of 69% of the annual greenhouse gas emissions target.
Objective not achieved by counting carbon sinks
Alas, if the raw emissions indicators are generally green, they turn red when the objectives include carbon sinks, such as forests, responsible for absorbing greenhouse gases. The SNBC-2 objective planned to achieve a carbon sink capable of absorbing between 40 and 45 MtCO2e in 2030. The provisional estimates of the SNBC-3 now target a sink with an absorption capacity of 19 MtCO2e on this horizon. Among the causes of this shift, the mortality rate of French trees has increased by 80% in ten years, according to the latest edition of the forest inventory established by the IGN, in 2023.
To compensate for the crumbling of its carbon sink, France must therefore mechanically reduce its carbon budgets by sector. In the new SNBC-3 roadmap, currently under consultation, French industry must reach 45 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emitted in 2030, or 8 MtCO2e less than SNBC-2.
The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has already led to an increase in the average temperature on Earth of 1.1°C compared to the pre-industrial era, according to the latest assessment report from the Panel of Experts Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2023. In order to reduce the impacts of climate change, the Paris Climate Agreement, adopted by almost all countries in the world, sets the objective of containing climate change. ‘elevation average temperatures “well below 2°C” compared to the pre-industrial era, while continuing efforts to limit this increase to less than 1.5°C.
