what the Ukrainian offensive in Russia hides

This weekend, the intensity of fighting in Russia’s Kursk region increased, with a marked Ukrainian advance. How to interpret this surprising advance?

Simon Cleven / t-online

The Ukrainian army would once again have managed to outpace the enemy troops in Kursk. This weekend, it launched an offensive in this region of western Russia. Heavy fighting reportedly took place until late Sunday evening. In its evening report, the general staff in kyiv reported a total of 42 armed clashes.

But the Russian army is also probably trying to advance in the region. At least that’s what a Ukrainian soldier said to be stationed in Kursk announced on the X platform. Under the pseudonym “war expert”, he discusses the “largest Russian offensive” since the Ukrainian invasion of the area in early August. Around forty armored vehicles would be involved. However, this information remains impossible to verify independently.

A showdown is clearly brewing these days in Kursk. Because the temporality of these reciprocal advances owes nothing to chance: in two weeks, on January 20, the next American president, Donald Trump, will be sworn in. Thousands of kilometers from Washington, Russia as well as Ukraine are apparently trying to prepare for this transfer of power. Both belligerents want tangible achievements on the battlefield.

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“Russians in the Kursk region very worried”

In public opinion, the word “peace” circulates when we talk about the conflict which has been raging for almost three years. This is above all linked to the incredible promise of the future leader of the United States to want to resolve the situation within 24 hours after taking office. Even though no detailed plan has yet been presented, Moscow and kyiv are nevertheless seeking to strengthen their respective positions with a view to possible negotiations.

Building on these recent successes, the Ukrainian general staff was already triumphant in silence: “The Russians in the Kursk region are very worried, because they were attacked from several directions and taken by surprise,” indicated a situation update. The Russian media, however, were content to report drone attacks repelled near Kursk in the evening. Both sides gave no information on losses, successes or changes in position on the front.

According to Russian military bloggers, Ukrainian units, however, have advanced to the east and northeast of the town of Sudja, on a main road towards the regional capital, Kursk. The Ukrainians had already captured Soudja during the August offensive. However, behind the scenes of this new Ukrainian offensive is debated within the community of observers: some suspect a diversionary maneuver to prepare perhaps decisive advances. Rumors of a Ukrainian offensive have been circulating among Russian military journalists for several days now.

Probably already 34,000 dead

It remains possible, however, that the Ukrainians simply wanted to get ahead of their adversaries. We regularly hear that Vladimir Putin has given the order to reconquer Kursk before January 20. So far, however, Russian efforts to achieve this have been slow, despite support from North Korea. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, a battalion of North Koreans, or around 500 soldiers, has already fallen. The head of the Ukrainian army, Olexander Syrsky, speaks of around 34,000 Russians who have died in Kursk since August.

According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian offensive to reconquer the area continued this weekend. The units would have progressed in particular to the south-east of Soudja. But in its latest report, the ISW indicates that Ukrainian drones continue to strike mechanized formations of the Russian army.

The electronic warfare that kyiv is currently waging combined with the ongoing ground operation poses considerable problems for the Russians in Kursk. The Ukrainians jam the signals of enemy drones to prevent them from attacking their own advancing units. According to Russian military bloggers, only Russian drones equipped with fiber optic cables could fly in the area.

“Compromise may cost Ukrainian land”

Analyst Emil Kastehelmi remains skeptical of Ukrainian progress. “It is unlikely that these measures will lead to significant results,” writes the Finn on X.

According to him, the Ukrainians are fighting against something stronger than them. Tactical successes or the conquest of certain villages certainly remain possible thanks to an effect of surprise, “but overall, the general situation is unlikely to change.”

Even if the Ukrainians advanced ten kilometers, writes Kastehelmi, the fighting would remain in roughly the same area where it has been taking place for months already.

The specialist sees both advantages and disadvantages in the Ukrainians’ strategy in Kursk.

The situation near Pokrovsk in Donetsk is particularly perilous. According to information from the Russian Defense Ministry, Kremlin soldiers conquered Kurakhove on Monday. Information denied by kyiv. The fighting around this town lasted about two months. The Ukrainian army thus held the town longer than experts thought.

According to Kastehelmi, however, they have managed to establish themselves in Kursk in recent weeks. The continuation of fighting on Russian territory would thus become more and more problematic for Putin’s policy. Russia would also have deployed well-trained and well-equipped troops in the region, but they would have achieved little during the reconquest.

“Your position in Kursk is important”

Outgoing American Secretary of State Antony Blinken also sees the political dimension of the Kursk offensive – no doubt again with a view to Trump’s arrival at the White House. He considers the situation of the Ukrainian armed forces in the region of crucial importance for the upcoming negotiations.

The administration still led for a few weeks by Joe Biden wants to ensure that kyiv will have “the best possible cards” in the event of talksadded the senior official.

He stressed that, in any case, Ukraine needs “adequate security guarantees” against Russian President Vladimir Putin. The latter’s “imperial ambitions” will remain, assured the Secretary of State. Putin will inevitably try to “rest, rearm and eventually attack again.” We therefore need “adequate deterrence so that he does not do it,” demanded Anthony Blinken.

Zelensky agrees: Trump must convince Putin to conclude a ceasefire, declared the Ukrainian president in a podcast hosted by the American Lex Fridman. But – again – not without strong security guarantees.

(French adaptation: Valentine Zenker)