Expert Bassam El Nifer assured that the slight drop in the value of the Tunisian dinar against the dollar is temporary and that it should recover in the days to come.
The exchange rate of the Tunisian dinar against the US dollar has indeed fallen to 3.2 dinars, according to daily exchange rates published on the website of the Central Bank of Tunisia. After several years of stability against the dollar, particularly since 2019, where the dinar oscillated around 3.1 dinars per dollar, the Tunisian currency experienced a decline yesterday, Monday January 6, 2025, trading at 3.098 dinars on the banking transaction market.
Note that the projections for the Tunisian budget 2025 were based on a price of 77.4 dollars per barrel of oil, while assuming the stability of the exchange rate of the dinar against the main currencies (dollar and euro).
A slight adjustment, not a disaster
Financial specialist Bassam El Nifer recognized the rise of the dollar against the dinar, explaining that this increase, estimated at 0.35%, allowed the dollar to cross the 3.2 dinar mark, while the euro recorded a drop of 0.36% against the dinar.
In a statement to TAP agency, El Nifer clarified that, according to market trends, there is a strong demand for dollars compared to the euro. By calculating the euro/dollar rate based on the exchange rates of the dinar against the euro and against the dollar, it appears that the difference is practically non-existent, and that the euro/dollar rate on the international market remains stable. He therefore rejected the idea of a “deterioration of the Tunisian dinar”, believing that the local currency follows the same trends as world markets.
Regarding the implications of this rise in the dollar, El Nifer highlighted that, according to forecasts from central banks and economic studies, the dollar is expected to remain strong throughout 2025, and that it could even increase against the euro. He added that the “green dollar” will continue to strengthen against the Tunisian dinar, while the euro could lose value against the local currency.
El Nifer also observed that the fall of the euro against the dinar could have a negative effect on Tunisian exports, which are mainly intended for the euro zone, but also on the increase in the value of imports, mainly paid in dollars. .
“We know that the structure of the Tunisian debt is largely denominated in euros, which could allow a certain advantage in the amount of the debt if it is settled at the end of 2024,” he explained. He also stressed that, thanks to this fluctuation, Tunisia could pay its debts, including the $500 million debt scheduled for January 30, on more favorable terms than those initially planned.
