In early 2025, Russia claimed the conquest of Kurakhove, a small industrial town in Donbass, strengthening its control over the Donetsk region. This strategic gain comes after the capture of several other Ukrainian cities, including Avdiivka and Niou-York. Kurakhove, which had 18,000 inhabitants before the war, is now under Russian domination, a turning point in the Kremlin’s offensive on Ukrainian territory.
Russian forces continue to advance on several fronts, now controlling much of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and dangerously approaching Pokrovsk. This progress is not made without resistance. The Ukrainian units, although having shown fierce defense, gradually found themselves forced to retreat. The pace of operations, although slowed down in winter, remains sustained, with around 3,400 km² conquered by Russia in 2024.
Ukrainian defenses: increasing fragility
Kurakhove, fortified and strategically located, has long been a stronghold for the Ukrainian army. However, the gradual encirclement of the Russians made its defense untenable. The capture of the city is anchored in a series of Russian victories in the Donbass, with the formation of a pincer movement which now threatens the last Ukrainian positions in the south of the region. The fall of Kurakhove could mark a turning point, facilitating Russian advances towards new strategic objectives.
With the capture of the city, Russia now threatens adjacent localities such as Konstiantynopil and Andriivka, whose defenses are weakening over time. These two cities are essential logistical hubs for Ukrainians, and their loss could accelerate the crumbling of Ukrainian positions in Donbass. The Kremlin, however, remains cautious in its advances, trying to avoid direct confrontation with cities like Pokrovsk, while gradually encircling them.
If Russian gains are undeniable, they remain moderate given the immensity of Ukrainian territory. General Olivier Kempf emphasizes that the Russian maneuver, although constant, has not yet achieved the decisive effectiveness hoped for. By 2024, Russia has conquered less than 0.5% of Ukrainian territory, and at the current rate it will still take more than 15 months to fully capture Donetsk Oblast.
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