The slight decline of the Tunisian dinar against the US dollar is temporary. The national currency should recover in the coming days, estimate experts Bassam Neifar and Moez Hadidane in statements to the TAP agency.
The exchange rate of the Tunisian dinar against the US dollar rose to 3.2 dinars, according to data from the Central Bank of Tunisia.
Indeed, after years during which the Tunisian dinar remained stable against the dollar, at 3.1 dinars/the dollar, particularly since 2019, the Tunisian currency recorded, Monday January 6, 2025, a drop in its value for ‘exchange on the banking market at the level of 3.2098 dinars.
Note that the assumptions for the 2025 state budget are based on a price of 77.4 dollars per barrel of oil as well as stability in the exchange rate of the dinar against the main currencies (dollar and euro).
For financial analyst Bassam Neifar, the increase in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Tunisian dinar is estimated at 0.35%, which allowed the dollar to rise above 3.2 dinars, against a decline of 0.36% of the euro against the dinar.
Neifar clarified that there is strong demand for the dollar compared to the euro on international markets, rejecting the idea of a deterioration of the Tunisian dinar, which, according to him, follows trends on world markets.
Regarding the impact of this rise in the dollar internationally, the analyst pointed out that central banks around the world and economic studies predict that the dollar is expected to remain strong throughout 2025, and that it could even increase against the euro, thus considering that the dollar will continue to appreciate against the Tunisian dinar, while the euro could lose value against the local currency.
Neifar also predicted that the fall of the euro against the dinar could have a negative effect on Tunisian exports, which are mainly destined for the euro zone. However, imports, mainly paid in dollars, will tend to increase.
“The Tunisian external debt is mainly denominated in euros (54%), in US dollars (26.5%), in Japanese yen (5.5%) and in special drawing units (the currency of the IMF), which will allow to generate relative gains in terms of outstanding debt, towards the end of 2024,” he added.
However, Tunisia could repay an amount greater than that initially planned with the deadline of January 30, which is of the order of a thousand million dollars, he stressed.
For his part, Moez Hadidane, financial markets expert, indicated that the appreciation of the dollar affected various other currencies and was not limited to the Tunisian dinar.
He explained that this rise in the dollar comes following the speeches of the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, concerning the new tariff policy. Hadidane explained that the new American administration considers that this policy will be less strict than Trump’s statements suggest and that the imposition of customs duties in this country will concern sectors affecting national and economic security, hence the observed increase in the dollar against other currencies.
And added that Trump has committed to applying a rigid customs policy, which could lead to a decline in the dollar in the coming weeks. He also estimated that the Tunisian dinar could stabilize and even fall below 3.2 dinars per dollar in the days to come.
