After the failure of negotiations for a centrist coalition, Austria risks a far-right government allied with the People’s Party or new elections in May. The sign of a Europe increasingly dominated by right-wing forces
L’Austria he could soon find himself with a government led by the Freedom Party (FPÖ), after the failure of negotiations for a centrist coalition, which prompted the Chancellor Karl Nehammer resigns both from government leaders and Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). With 29% of the votes obtained in September and a growing consensus according to polls, the far-right party led by Herbert Kickcould form a parliamentary majority with the ÖVP.
This event marks aEurope increasingly oriented to the rightwith conservative and radical forces growing across the continent. With Trump returning to the White House and the upcoming elections in Germany, 2025 could further strengthen this trend.
Austria: what happens after the breakup between Nehammer and Babler
Nehammer had attempted to form a centrist government with social democrats (SPÖ) e liberalsexcluding the FPÖ, known for its eurosceptic and pro-Russian positions. However, negotiations with the SPÖ failed on Saturday, the social democratic leader Andreas Babér who accused the ÖVP of not wanting to find compromise, particularly on crucial issues such as reducing the deficit, which exceeds the 3% limit imposed by the EU.
Nehammer explained in a video on
Sunday, theÖVP he named Christian Stocker, interim head and opened the possibility of a dialogue with the FPÖ: “I expect the leader of the party with the most votes to be responsible for forming the government. If we are invited to the talks, we will accept the invitation.” He then stressed that “this is not about Herbert Kickl or me, but the fact that the country needs a stable government at the moment and we cannot continue to waste time on election campaigns or elections.”
The role of President Van der Bellen
The president Alexander Van der Bellenformer leader of the Greens, had initially excluded Herbert Kickl, leader of the FPÖ, from the mandate to form a government, citing the impossibility of finding allies. However, after the failure of centrist negotiations, Van der Bellen said that “the situation has changed” and he will meet Kickl today, Monday January 6, at 11 a.m. “That was not my wish,” Bellen emphasized.
“The voices within the ÖVP which rule out collaboration with an FPÖ led by Kickl have calmed down,” the president said, suggesting that a new political scenario could open up.
FPÖ: from partner to potential government leader
Le FPÖ (Freedom Party of Austria), based in the 50s from a former SS officerhas been participating in coalition governments for a long time, but has never had the opportunity to lead an executive. The last coalition experience dates back to 2017-2019, when the far-right party collaborated with the ÖVP (Austrian People’s Party), but always with a secondary role. But today the situation has changed and Kickl stated bluntly that in the event of the formation of an FPÖ government, he would lead it as chancellor.
The FPÖ succeeded in imposing a populist and pro-Russian program, winning consensus thanks to its tough policies immigration policies and the skepticism about vaccines. In a country with one of the lowest vaccination rates in Europe, his anti-vax stance has given him a considerable advantage. In addition, its ties with Russia, in a Non-NATO countries and again dependent on Russian gasconsolidated its support among opponents of Western policies.
Despite differences such as opposition to aid to Ukraine, the FPÖ and ÖVP share priorities such as strict immigration and business-friendly economic policies.
Austria: the risk of new elections
The pressure is on for all parties. The meeting between Bellen and Kickl could mark a turning point, with the president having to decide whether to give the far-right leader the mandate to form the government or pave the way for new elections.
The Austrian crisis reflects a broader phenomenon in Europe, where centrist parties struggle to find alliances without far-right forces.
Europe increasingly to the right between conservatives, patriots and sovereignists
In 2024, many European countries will experience a reinforcement right-wing forceswith the European Union facing an increasingly polarized political landscape.
In Germanythe government crisis allowed the AfD, a far-right party, to gain ground, reaching 19% in the polls, while in France the fragile government of Macron saw the rise of the right, despite internal difficulties: the National Gathering he won the European elections with more than 31% of the votes, thus consolidating his position in the legislative elections. The Elysée faced its crisis point with the rapid collapse of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, replaced by François Bayrou, who sought, not without difficulty, to rebuild an inclusive coalition.
The Romania saw ultranationalist Călin Georgescu win the first round of elections, with popularity fueled by social discontent. However, the elections were annulled by the Constitutional Court due to irregularities linked to external interference, paving the way for further uncertainties.
Even in Bulgariathe conservative GERB party won, but political hyper-fragmentation made it difficult to form a stable government, demonstrating the political paralysis of the country.
Even in Belgium e Portugalright-wing forces consolidated their position: in Belgium, the Flemish conservative party N-VA won the elections, followed by Vlaams Belang, the far-right party; in Portugal, the center-right Democratic Alliance coalition gained the upper hand, leading to a change in the parliamentary majority.
