Will 2025 be the year when the war in Ukraine ends?

The imminent arrival of Donald Trump at the White House suggests the possibility of negotiations to put an end to the conflict, the consequences of which are increasingly serious for Russia and Ukraine. But the American strategy remains unclear, and the ceasefire still appears to be a long way off on the ground.

This is the date that captures minds, in kyiv, in Moscow, and in all Western capitals. Monday January 20, 2025 is the date of Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony, and therefore his effective return to power. From Warsaw to Paris, via London, Berlin and kyiv, everyone is feverishly awaiting the installation of Donald Trump in the White House, and above all to see more clearly the American strategy for Ukraine.

Very few clues so far indicate the continuation of the operations, apart from a desire repeatedly displayed by the Republican to “end the war“in Ukraine. Everything depends on “the unpredictable Mr. Trump“, as Volodymyr Zelensky nicknamed him in a long interview with the American podcaster Lex Fridman, recorded at the end of December and posted online on Sunday January 5. During these three hours of exchanges, the Ukrainian president assured that he wanted to agree on a plan of peace with Donald Trump before any negotiations with Vladimir Putin.

The arrival of Donald Trump raises major questions about maintaining military and financial support for Ukraine. It also comes after a year where Ukraine suffered setbacks on the ground and saw its strength run out of steam. The Russian army gained around 4,000 km² in Donbass in 2024, or seven times more than in 2023. Unprecedented territorial gains, but which must nevertheless be put into perspective, in view of the massive effort deployed by Moscow. No major Ukrainian city has fallen, and human losses are colossal on the Russian side: Moscow lost more men in 2023 than in the previous two years combined. According to the Ukrainian general staff, Russia is losing more than 20,000 men per month, with more than 600 deaths per day on the front.

Moreover, to gain these meager advances, Russia is mobilizing its entire economy. But the warning signs are multiplying, with a ruble at its lowest, galloping inflation (9% officially, undoubtedly much more in reality) and thousands of companies threatened with bankruptcy. If we add to this the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, which the Kremlin did not have the means to avoid, and which endangers its access to the Mediterranean, a Russia emerges much more weakened than it wants. admit it. What remains is weariness and exhaustion on the Ukrainian side, where the desire for negotiation has greatly increased in public opinion.

Faced with this situation, and pending possible negotiations, Ukraine is trying to maintain control of part of the Kursk region, in Russia, where it launched a surprise attack last summer. A new offensive was carried out yesterday in this border area, where Russia deployed thousands of North Korean soldiers, now sent to the front line. “Ukraine’s positions [dans la région de Koursk] are important for possible future negotiations” assures the – still – American Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, precisely two weeks before the return of “the unpredictable Mr. Trump“…