Wall Street sees gold at $2,800 an ounce by end of 2025

After the feat of 2024, where its value increased by 27%, gold still has a bright future ahead of it. This is the opinion of the big Wall Street bankers, interviewed by the Financial Times. On average, the responses received by the British newspaper allow them toestimate a bullion price for the end of 2025 at 2795 dollars per ounce, a stone’s throw from the threshold of 2800 dollars exceeded only once in its entire history, at the end of October last year.

The central bank factor

On the other hand, American bankers believe that all the factors that pushed the metal higher last year could also be decisive in the months to come. Starting with the most important: boom in purchases by global central banksparticularly emerging countries, which are accumulating gold reserves to diversify against the US dollar. In recent months, the central bank factor has been decisive: between January and September alone, they bought 694 tonnes of the yellow metal.

This dynamic, recalls the Financial Times, has been in place since the United States imposed large-scale sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, starting in February 2022.

FED, guerre, Trump

Three other elements will contribute to the bullion’s appreciation, according to experts. First, the FED’s interest rate cuts, which have already contributed to the metal’s rise in the second half of 2024. Second, the persistent geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East: the yellow metal is in fact, by nature, considered a safe haven asset to purchase during periods of market uncertainty or volatility.

Thirdly, Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House: according to experts, his campaign promises, if implemented, will inevitably lead to an increase in American debt, with the possibility “ a weakening dollar and higher inflation said Heraeus Precious Metals global head of trading Henrik Marx, who speculated that gold could go as high as $2,950. All these conditions, if they were to occur, would represent, according to Mr. Marx, “ a good combination for metal ».

For Goldman, gold can rise to $3,000

Looking at the individual banks surveyed, the most positive on bullion’s performance is Goldman Sachs, which expects a price of $3,000 per ounce by the end of the year. The investment bank cited “ central bank demand and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve » as factors of the increase. On the other side of the fence, Barclays and Macquarie see gold weakening to $2,500 (-4% from current levels). Analysts of the latter, in particular, have clarified that gold “ expected to initially come under pressure from the strong US dollar, but should also be supported by increased physical purchases of the metal and stable public sector demand ».

For its part, the World Gold Council, the association which brings together some of the largest mining companies in the world, expects an evolution “ positive but much more modest » this year than in 2024.